As a neutral observer, I have no hesitation in saying that at this moment there is hardly any political party which could pose a political challenge to the BJP at the national level, but that doesn’t mean that there are no alarm bells for the BJP. The party, which swept not only the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but also most of the Assembly elections held after that, may seem to be losing the kind of advantage it had two years ago. The massive defeat in the Assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar is one pointer towards that. Even in states where the BJP won the Assembly elections, its voteshare declined compared to the Lok Sabha elections. It managed to win many Assembly elections in spite of a declined voteshare due to a division of the anti-BJP vote.
The declined voteshare of the BJP in Assembly elections is understandable as regional parties are slightly more favoured amongst voters in state elections compared to the national election, which explains to some degree why the BJP’s voteshare declined in most Assembly elections held after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But should a party which swept the national elections in 2014, got a historic victory, won a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha which no party has been able to do in the last three decades, not be concerned about its losing ground to some extent The declining voteshare is nothing but an indication of declining popularity of the party, during last few years, though marginally. What should concern the party is the recent report from the Labour Bureau indicating the current unemployment rate in India (2015-16) being at an all-time high in the last five years. The party should be concerned about this more so because the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, goes to the polls early next year along with Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
There is hardly any doubt that elections are largely about bijli, paani and sadak (electricity, drinking water and road) as these are the issues which concerns the common man, if one believes elections are only about such civic issues one would be making a mistake. The findings of surveys of past elections indicate that voters are concerned about their economic well-being and their decision to vote is influenced by that. I do believe that such figures have a very limited role to play in elections, but I do believe that perception plays an important role in shaping voters’ choices. Studies conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests, besides other factors, the BJP-led NDA government lost the 2004 Lok Sabha elections as voters in large numbers believed employment opportunities had declined and large numbers voted against the BJP. The voters expressed similar views on this issue with regard to the Congress-led UPA government and large numbers went on to vote against the Congress in 2014. The national elections are not round the corner, and there could be a turnaround in the next two years, but there are state Assembly elections in between. Victory and defeat in the Assembly elections helps in building as well as destroying the momentum for or against the party. With the popular saying with reference to forming the government at the Centre “the road to Delhi goes from UP”, the prevailing situation of unemployment should certainly ring alarm bells for the BJP, more so when UP goes to the polls early next year.
As per the fifth annual employment-unemployment all-India survey, the unemployment rate in India has shot up to a five-year high of 5 per cent in 2015-16. The unemployment rate was 4.9 per cent in 2013-14, 4.7 per cent in 2012-13 and 3.8 in 2011-12. The survey also indicated that the problem of unemployment is more alarming amongst women, with the unemployment rate at 8.7 per cent compared to 4.3 per cent amongst men. The surveys also indicated that about 77 per cent of households had no regular income as there is not even a single person in the household with a regular salary or regular wage. I am sure elections are won by political parties more by perception about the party, the promises they make to voters, and such figures do not win votes for the party. But at the same time the evidence also suggests that such figures do not remain only on paper but is experienced by voters, both good and bad, at the ground level.
The evidence from the surveys conducted during the 2004 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections does indicate, besides other factors, the then ruling party/coalition lost the elections as large number of voters expressed dissatisfaction with prevailing unemployment. During the surveys conducted in 2004 and 2014, a sizeable proportion of voters confirmed that the situation on unemployment had worsened. When a survey was conducted in 2004, 41 per cent voters indicated unemployment had deteriorated, while only 17 per cent believed the opposite. There were others who either mentioned it had remained the same or could not express their views on this issue. It is important to note that of those who believed that the employment situation has deteriorated, 30 per cent voted for the Congress and only 18 per cent voted for the BJP. The BJP lost that election in spite of the slogan “India Shining”.
The response was not any different when the same questions was asked during the 2014 elections. During the survey, 34 per cent voters expressed the view that the employment situation had worsened while only 19 per cent believed it had improved in the last five years of UPA rule. Of those who believed it had deteriorated, 33 per cent voted for the BJP in 2014 while only 15 per cent voted for the Congress. The Congress lost this election badly, and ended up with lowest tally of seats and lowest voteshare.
Most political parties have a core support base which votes for the party irrespective of its policies and programmes. This is true of the Congress, which polled 19 per cent votes in 2014, and of the BJP, which polled 18.6 per cent votes in 2009, and of many other political parties. The core supporters of the BJP would end up voting for the party irrespective of whether employment opportunities improve or not, but that hardly helps the party in winning elections. The BSP polled 19 per cent votes in UP during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but ended up with zero seats. What every party needs is to get more votes besides its core votes if it aims to win elections. The BJP needs to address the problem of increasing unemployment if it aims to attract voters other than its core supporters.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed here are personal.
