All the three Opposition parties in West Bengal — the Congress, the Left and the Bharatiya Janata Party — seem to be in a dilemma. The absence of an alliance will ensure that Mamata Banerjee, chief of All-India Trinamul Congress, has another term as chief minister. And even if the Congress and the Left manage to form an alliance, their collective vote share would still be marginally less (Congress 9.5 per cent + Left 29.6 per cent = 39.1 per cent) than the vote share of the Trinamul Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (39.3 per cent). In politics, two plus two hardly makes a four.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamul Congress left behind the combined Left with more than 10 per cent votes, while the BJP emerged as the third-largest party with 16.8 per cent votes. The Congress ended up with less than 10 per cent votes.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, even if the vote share of the Trinamul Congress declines by few percentage points, victory for the party is ensured.
After the massive defeat of the Left in the 2011 Assembly elections, one would have hoped that there would be a revival of the Left Front, but that has not happened. The vote share of the Left declined from 50.2 per cent in 2006 to 41.1 per cent in 2011 and further to 29.6 per cent during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and it ended up with the same number of seats in the Lok Sabha as the BJP from the state (two seats each).
The Congress witnessed a steep decline in vote share and was at the fourth position. It cannot even dream of being a formidable Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly, forget plotting a return to power.
The BJP is on the rise in West Bengal and sure to perform well during the forthcoming Assembly elections. However, it is not a force to pose a serious challenge to Ms Banerjee.
The BJP emerged as a strong political force in urban West Bengal. Of the 16.8 per cent votes it got in the state overall, in urban constituencies it polled 24.5 per cent votes, marginally less compared to the Left’s 25.9 per cent urban votes. Even in semi-urban constituencies it polled 21.9 per cent votes.
There seems to be some attraction for the BJP amongst the middle class, of which 21 per cent voted for it. But not enough to give Ms Banerjee sleepless nights.
With only few months to go for polls, it seems unlikely that either the Left, the Congress or even the BJP can pull off some miracle to win the hearts of voters in such a big way so as to register victory in elections.
Also, I don’t think the Banerjee government will mess things up so badly to make things difficult for itself. The vote share of the Trinamul Congress in parliamentary elections has increased by 18 per cent in the last decade (from 21 per cent in 2004 Lok Sabha elections to 39.3 per cent during the 2014). During the same time period its vote share in Assembly elections increased by 12 per cent (26.6 per cent in 2006 to 38.9 per cent in 2011).
This was due to, in no small measure, the huge support Ms Banerjee has of the state’s women voters. Surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 2011 and 2014 show women votes for Ms Banerjee were three-four per cent higher as compared to that of men — enough to put the party much ahead of others.
In such a situation, the only hope for the Opposition parties to pose a challenge to the Trinamul Congress is to form an alliance — a common platform to contest against Ms Banerjee. Leaders of the Congress and the Left have made an effort to form an alliance, but the question is, will they be able to win It seems unlikely.
It is difficult to imagine how the workers of these two parties, who have opposed each other for several years, can work together. And even if they do, given the limited support base which the Congress has in the state at this moment, and with drastically reduced electoral support of the Left, an alliance may not be able to muster votes sizeable enough to defeat the Trinamul Congress.
The Trinamul Congress has made heavy inroads amongst the state’s lower-class voters (43 per cent in 2014) and the poor (38 per cent) who were once the backbone of the Left vote bank in the state.
Amongst the lower-class voters, only 27 per cent voted for the Left, while of the rich, 42 per cent voted for it.
Findings of the CSDS surveys indicate that the Congress is left with supporters only amongst the Muslims (out of which 24 per cent voted for the Congress in 2014).
Given the numbers and politics on ground, it is difficult to assume that the alliance of the Congress and the Left can result in a complete merger of their vote share. It is, thus, important for the Congress to win back the lower-class voters if it aims to stage a comeback. But that’s not going to be an easy task for a party that stands fourth in the ranking.
The writer is a professor and currently the director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
