While regional parties have stopped the BJP’s “ashwamedh” after the Lok Sabha elections, 2016 may not be a good year for the saffron party as it would have to take on the Trinamul Congress, UDF, LDF and Dravidian parties in the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Incidentally, Bihar stopped the BJP’s march for a second time, first in 1989 when Lalu Prasad Yadav stopped L.K. Advani’s “Rath Yatra’ and second in 2015 when Mr Yadav and Mr Nitish Kumar checked Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Modi magic started waning from the Delhi Assembly elections, which had seen the Aam Aadmi Party bringing the BJP to single digits when the electoral campaign was led by Mr Modi.
But the Bihar battle was a different story. It has not only revived RJD chief Lalu Yadav, but has made him stronger.
The BJP is seen as a novice in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and to some extent in Assam, going to the polls next year. It has been lacking a face against Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Tarun Gogoi in Assam, Oommen Chandy in Kerala and therefore looking for rebels in these states.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP cannot afford to antagonise AIADMK supremo and chief minister J. Jayalalithaa. It has been depending on her party for support in the two Houses of Parliament for the passage of crucial bills. Besides, its Hindutva face will have no takers there.
The Bihar polls would also have a bearing on Maharashtra in the sense that the BJP cannot corner its ally Shiv Sena beyond a point. The Shiv Sena had fielded candidates in the Bihar polls and has made up its mind that it will have to go alone whenever the Maharashtra elections are held.
It will be interesting to see whether the BJP would go alone or fight the Punjab polls in an alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal.
Mr Kumar, Ms Banerjee, Mr Naveen Patnaik, Ms Jayalalithaa, Mr Arvind Kejriwal (all CMs), Mr Sharad Pawar, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ms Mayawati could check Mr Modi and his BJP in over half-a-dozen states.
Congress insiders foresee that the Bihar results could be the beginning of the formation of a “grand secular alliance” at the national level.
