Scorching summer ahead: IMD predicts high temperatures from March to May
New Delhi: This year, half of the country could witness a hot spring and a scorching summer as the Met office has predicted an over 1 degree Celsius increase in normal temperature from March to May.
Though the forecast projected higher than normal temperature across the country, these months are likely to be particularly merciless in north India.
Delhi, along with Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan, is likely to see average temperatures rise over 1.5 degrees above normal. However, the maximum rise has been projected in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Average temperatures could be a massive 2.3 degrees higher than usual in the two hill states.
The seasonal forecast, released by the India Meteorological Department on Wednesday, projects higher than normal temperature across India.
The forecsast noted that the seasonal average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by more than 1 degree Celsius over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, HCD (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi), Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh. It is likely to be more than 0.5 degree Celsius over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema. Remaining subdivisions are likely to experience maximum temperature anomalies between 0.5 degree Celsius and 1 degree Celsius.
It also added that there is about 52 per cent probability that maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during March to May will touch their peak. This in turn suggests that normal to above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the zone during the season. This zone covers the states of Delhi, Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, UP, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Orissa and Telangana, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra.
IMD said the regions where the temperature rise is likely to be moderate are south India and four northeastern states. The outlook shows that the seasonal average mean temperature in Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and north-eastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura is likely to be less than 0.5 degree Celsius above normal.
The forecast for the March to May period is prepared on the basis of prevailing initial conditions in February.
According to a report in The Times of India, D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD’s long term forecasting division which made the forecast said, “In the absence of other large scale signals during the March-May period, the increased temperatures predicted in the forecast can be attributed to global warming.”
“A majority of international weather models have been showing increased temperatures in most parts of the world in the recent years. This shows a global warming trend,” he added.
The outlook, however, carried a positive sign for a normal monsoon this year as it noted that La Nina conditions over equatorial Pacific conditions are likely to be moderate till spring season and are likely to start weakening thereafter.
The outlook indicated “above normal” maximum, minimum and mean temperatures across the country.
The IMD said, “Overall, the temperature anomaly patterns show increase in the magnitudes of the anomalies from southeastern parts to the north-western parts of the country.”
