Pak-stoked terror may be down, but definitely not out

The killing of Hizbul Mujahideen’s young, social media-glorified leader Burhan Wani on July 8, 2016, sparked off anti-Indian protests, which spread to all 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley, where the government imposed curfew from July 15 and suspended mobile services. Protesters defied curfew and began rioting against security forces and destroying public properties. Over 90 civilians were reported killed and over 15,000 were injured in over three months. While two security personnel died and over 4,000 were injured during the months of rioting, many more were killed in encounters between Pakistan Army-supported Pakistani and Kashmiri terrorists during that period.

Separatist leaders loyal to Pakistan and on the payroll of Pakistan Army/Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) under S.A.S. Geelani, issued calendars specifying types and areas of rioting, motivated/instigated public, particularly youth and paid them fixed sums of money for pelting stones, robbing rifles and robbing and lobbing grenades.

Another very major and calculated aim of the separatists has been to ruin education in the Valley. While every year precious school days were lost owing to strikes and shutdowns called by the separatists, in the 2016 rioting, 32 were destroyed by burning, even as many parents who could afford to, sent their children out of J&K, or at least out of the Valley. The only schools which ran uninterruptedly in the affected parts of the Valley were 30 of the 46 Army Goodwill Schools established in J&K by the Army as part of its civic assistance programme, Sadbhavna, since the early 1990s. The Army also launched a campaign on Twitter hashtag “#School Chalo”, which began catching on. However, that resulted in a desperate reaction from separatists who burnt more schools.

After four odd months of mayhem, sudden demonetisation on November 8, 2016 came as a rude shock to the entire combo of ISI, terrorists, separatists/their agents, hawala operators, etc. Huge amounts of unaccounted Indian currency meant for organising terror and rioting, often sent in gas cylinders, became waste paper overnight.

Since the 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan there was a progressive decline in fatalities in J&K. While in 2002, there were reportedly about 3,022 fatalities of security personnel, terrorists and civilians; by 2015 the figure had reduced to 174. But in 2016, 233 persons died in terrorist related violence, of which 148 were terrorists, 74 security personnel and 11 civilians. Also in 2016, there was a three-fold increase in infiltration into the Kashmir Valley, with 364 attempts, as many as over 120 terrorists succeeded to infiltrate, as against 33 in 2015.

Minister of state for home affairs Hansraj Gangaram Ahir informed the Rajya Sabha that additional companies of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were also deployed to support the J&K police, which registered 2,513 FIRs in which 4,372 accused were arrested. Further, 525 notices under Section 25 of the Police Act were served; 472 persons were detained under the Public Safety Act, including terrorists, over ground workers, separatists, stonepelters, instigators, criminals and others.

Recently the government also reportedly approved the following schemes for the employment of youths of J&K: (a) engagement of additional 10,000 SPOs in the state, (b) vacancies of 1,206 constables for CAPFs/riflemen for Assam Rifles, (c) about 4,300 posts of constables for raising of five India Reserve Battalions in J&K. Besides the following two schemes are reportedly under implementation: (a) Special Industry Initiative (Udaan) to enhance skill and employability of graduates and three year engineering diploma holders and under the scheme, with nearly 23,676 candidates having joined training, of whom 16,576 had been trained and more than 9,500 offered placement, (b) Skill Empowerment and Employment Scheme (Himayat) to provide options and opportunities to school/college dropouts for salaried or self-employment and under the scheme 68,910 candidates have been trained and 51,895 placed in food retail chain, BPOs, retail mart, electricity, pharma sales assistant, physician assistant, etc. While these achievements/figures have been claimed, it remains to be seen if these schemes have made a significant difference to the foul mood of youth in the Valley who have been much influenced by social media. On receiving inputs that Wani’s successor, Zakir Rashid Bhat alias Musa, used one of the rooms of a house in Batipora Dadsara village in South Kashmir, where Wani hailed from, to record videos to threaten policemen and their informers, the J&K police raided the house. While some clothes and other material used by Musa in different videos and photographs were recovered, neither Musa nor the house owner could be traced.

Since the attack by Pakistani terrorists on an Army unit in Uri and following the two subsequent incidents of heinous mutilation also indicating Pakistan Army and its terrorists’ frustration, the midnight surprise strikes, misnamed surgical strikes, and the retaliatory punitive pounding of over 20 posts of Pakistan Army/rangers hit them hard enough for Pakistani Army cry out for talks.

Donald Trump’s taking over as the US President, incidentally timed with India’s demonetisation, was followed by his brief telephone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On February 8, 2017 when defence minister Manohar Parrikar spoke on telephone to the new US defence secretary, James Mattis, they expressed satisfaction at the progress in defence cooperation between India and the US, specially in recent years, and noted its significance in the regional and global context. They emphasised the special significance and high priority placed by both countries to the relationship, and resolved to work together to further consolidate and expand this partnership in the future.

Despite Mr Trump’s initiative against Jaish-e-Muhammad head Masood Azhar, stymied again by China and Pakistan government’s cosmetic house arrest of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba/Jamat-ud-Dawa head Hafiz Saeed, there is going to be no reduction in attempts by the Pakistan Army to pump in more terrorists in the Valley/direct those who already infiltrated till December 16. While heavy snow in January this year and the Indian Army’s strong anti-infiltration measures may have brought down figures of terrorist initiated incidents to only four in January 2017, it is quite obvious that attempts to activate ISI agents in other states of India are on. Two groups of JeM have been reported to be camping in Zaffarwal, Pakistan to try to create chaos during Punjab elections. Agents and rings of the ISI have been busted but there are many more “sleepers”, who will await opportunities whenever fresh stocks of Indian currency or fake notes are available. As it is there are enough terrorists already in the Kashmir Valley who will strike whenever/wherever possible, as in Kulgam a few days ago.

It is all the more important now for the Indian Army and security forces to be on guard not only on the borders but in all Indian states and to ensure that there is no let-up in modernisation and acquisition of necessary arms ammunition and equipment. While alongside, the diplomatic offensive should vigorously and relentlessly be maintained, if the Pakistan Army/ISI direct more terrorist attacks, which it will, New Delhi must not hesitate to approve a repeat of covert surprise strikes at least across the Line of Control — legally Indian territory.