In a closely fought electoral contest, the reality often lies in the detail. The JAIN-Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll provides enough indications of sharp regional and demographic variations with voters across the six regions of the State having distinctly different choices, men varying in the intensity of support for different parties as compared to women, the electoral mood in the small towns and cities at variance from the villages and Bengaluru, and access to education and economic status appearing to be critical in defining choices and support for different political players.
From purposes of electoral analysis, Karnataka has been historically divided into six regions: a) Hyderabad-Karnataka which includes areas of the State which we part of the old Nizam’s territoty; b) Mumbai- Karnataka which was in the Bombay Presidency during British rule; c) Coastal Karnataka which includes the Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttar Kannada districts; d) Central Karnataka which includes the Northern segments of Old Mysore and the Malanad regions; e) Bengaluru covering both the city and its rural outskirts; and f) Southern Karnataka consisting of the remaining territories of the Old Mysore region.
The JAIN-Lokniti-CSDS Poll indicates that the BJP is well ahead of the Congress in the Mumbai-Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka region. The Mumbai-Karnataka region has been the stronghold of the BJP and they seem to be retaining their support in this region. In the 2013 elections too if one were to bring together the BJP and KJP vote, it was higher than that of the Congress.
Coastal Karnataka witnessed a swing towards the Congress followed by a shift to the BJP with every passing election. Last time around, in 2013, the Congress did exceptionally well there but this time the BJP seems to be the favourite.
The Congress on the other hand seems ahead in the Hyderabad-Karnataka and Central Karnataka regions. This is crucial in explaining the close race between the two key players. Studies have shown that for a party to emerge with a majority it needs to do well in both Mumbai-Karnataka and Hyderabad- Karnataka. At the time of the Pre Poll Survey, the BJP appeared ahead in one and the Congress in the other.
In Bengaluru the race seems evenly poised with the BJP marginally ahead.
In Southern Karnataka, the JD(S) seems to be ahead of the Congress and the BJP does not appear to have made sufficient inroads in this region. In 2013 too, the JD(S) was marginally ahead of the Congress but this time, the mood a month before the poll indicates that the gap between the JD(S) and Congress is much wider. However, the presence of the BJP could split the anti-Congress vote between the JDS and the BJP, thus helping the Congress in the process.
Two regions appear to emerge as crucial players in deciding who emerges as the frontrunner: Hyderabad-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka. As the campaign proceeds can the Congress retain its advantage in Northern Karnataka? Does JDS remain in the lead or do the Congress and BJP catch up in Southern Karnataka?
