Raipur: All eyes are on former Chhattisgarh chief minister Ajit Jogi as he gears up to emerge as the third force, besides the ruling BJP and the Congress, in the 2018 Assembly elections.
Whether he ends up as a game spoiler for the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress or turns out to be a "king maker" remains to be seen but the growing influence of his Chhattisgarh Janata Congress (J) in the state can be gauged from the recent hints dropped by chief minister Raman Singh that Mr Jogi's party cannot be ignored in elections.
Mr Singh's statement, acknowledging Mr Jogi as a force to reckon with in Chhattisgarh politics, has taken leaders of both the BJP as well as the Congress by surprise.
But Congress leaders said the chief minister is trying to prop up Mr Jogi's outfit to cut into Congress votes- a strategy which is unlikely to stop the Congress from wresting power in the tribal state.
Some in the ruling BJP and Opposition Congress, however, are of the firm view that the CJC (J) founded by Mr Jogi after he broke away from the Congress in June 2016 "may end up playing the role of a game spoiler for both the BJP and the Congress in the 2018 Assembly elections".
"Even if Mr Jogi's party wins 3-4 Assembly seats, he will emerge as a king maker," said a professor of political science in a government college in Raipur who did not wish to be quoted.
"If Mr Jogi enters into an understanding with any of the two main players, he may damage the prospects of the third party just as independent candidates do in most cases," he said.
Some Congress leaders are confident that there will be no Jogi-effect. "Chhattisgarh has always witnessed bipolar politics involving BJP and Congress. Many regional parties were floated in the past but they failed to have any impact in the Assembly elections. Mr Jogi's party may meet the fate as other regional parties," a senior Congress leader said.
Mr Jogi's close aides, however, claimed that the former chief minister has considerable hold over members of the Satnami community who can influence the outcome in at least 10 constituencies in the 90-member Assembly.
This claim does not impress the Congress. Of the 10 Assembly constituencies where Satnamis are in majority, Congress could win only one in the last Assembly polls. The rest nine seats were won by the BJP.
The ruling BJP has a strength of 49 in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly. The Congress has 39 MLAs. The BSP has one seat and there is one independent candidate.
Mr Trivedy said, "The CM is promoting Mr Jogi to cut into Congress votes. But, the mood of voters this time is strongly in favour of Congress," he added.
BJP admits that Mr Jogi's party will damage the prospects of Congress more than the ruling party.
"Mr Jogi has his pockets of influence in certain areas. But, he will end up damaging prospects of Congress in the coming Assembly elections because he broke away from the Congress and has a bitter relation with it," said BJP spokesman Sanjay Srivastav.
"Even if he garners one-two per cent votes in the Assembly elections, he can upset the apple cart of other parties. The BJP came to power in the last Assembly elections by securing a vote share lead of less than one percent (0.85 per cent) over the Congress," a BJP leader said. Mr Jogi had, however, claimed earlier that his party will emerge as an alternative to the BJP and the next polls will be a direct fight between BJP and his party — a claim dismissed by the Congress.
