The report card is in and it doesn’t look rosy for the saffron party. The Narendra Modi government, post its debacle with the unskilled and totally clumsy implementation of demonetisation and GST, might be staring down the barrel of the democratic franchise as people may not vote for the party with the clear majority that it swept the country with in the 2014 elections.
According to projections by CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia), the BJP stands to lose 10 to 80 seats in the 2019 elections as opposed to the clean sweep of 282 seats it won in 2014. Considering the general mood of the country, that is hard pressed to see “achche din”, this might be a conservative estimate. There are many who are more than just miffed with the performance of the Modi-led government, especially when it comes to its complete non-performance with regards to the Indian economy.
The turning point lies with everyone getting out of their comfortable armchairs and going out to vote for the national elections. The country’s educated often indulge in armchair politics but find it tedious to go out and vote. My advice to them is, this year make it your New Year resolution to vote. Why do I say this? Because it is easy to sway the masses by drumming up fake patriotism and by polarising them communally. However, those with a bit of education can hopefully see the sleight of hand, the fake numbers, and with the Modi magic wearing thin, the smooth talker may not be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Those in the market sector are holding their breath for the coming elections, since they are half expecting a comeback from the Congress. That strange demon called contemporary history, always gives us a glimpse into the future. Everyone remembers how the India Shining campaign hosted by the Vajpayee-led government tanked in 2004 and how the tide turned. Much to the BJP’s surprise the people elected Manmohan Singh from the Congress-led government, which then presided over India for the next decade. History will repeat itself?
Let us look at the evidence before us: It is well documented that a non-Congress government completed its first full term only in 2004 — a full 57 years after India’s Independence. It is also true that no non-Congress government has ever completed two consecutive full terms yet, and if the Modi-led government wins, this would be a “first ever”. Besides being just “default setting”, to quote Rahul Gandhi, the Congress-led government has much to prove. The young Gandhi has not left any stone unturned when it comes to proving his mettle, whether it is his political speeches, or his efforts to take on board all the allegations about corruption.
From the state elections, it is evident that the BJP will find it extremely difficult to repeat its 2014 performance in states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and one may even add Karnataka and Kerala to that list. Kerala is certainly miffed over the step-motherly treatment meted out to them during call for relief from the devastating floods that swept across Kerala. The gains for the BJP from states in the Northeast and those like West Bengal and Odisha may not be enough to bridge the deficit in the north and the west.
No doubt there is a new, young captain at the helm of affairs in the Congress Party. Rahul Gandhi is a new player to the political arena, but he also comes to the table with a clean chit. Mr Gandhi is not hesitant to address the agrarian crisis, and the Modi government’s sops held out to the farmers may be too little too late. With a bumper crop and falling prices it is going to take more than piecemeal to offerings to reassure the farmers and agrarian community. Many families have lost their bread-winners to farmer suicides. Clubbed with the escalating fuel prices, and lack of employment, the BJP is finding it difficult to build a convincing alternative narrative, it is certainly on the back foot and on the defensive when it comes to the economy.
Firing the “Make in India” programme into smithereens is the Rafale fighter jets deal. The original plan was to upgrade India’s ageing air fleet by buying the technology from the French government and assembling the Rafale planes in India by either the state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in Bengaluru. The deal was proposed in 2012 by the Congress-led government. But in 2016, after coming to power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went ahead and announced that India will buy 36 French-manufactured Rafale fighter jets off-the-shelf from Dassault, the French aircraft builder and integrator. No transparency on a multi-million-dollar deal? And what happened to giving Indian’s skilled techies employment and know-how? What happened to “Make in India”? Sounds like the BJP went through a lot of trouble to cover its tracks on this botched-up deal.
The future lies in building alliances with other parties. It lies in demystifying the myth that secularism stands for a pro-Muslim and is anti-Hindu sentiment. Secularism means that everyone has equal rights and that we are a syncretic nation that does not believe in polarising its many peoples whether they are Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians or Buddhists, irrespective of caste, class and gender. A secular nation only grows when it cares for its minorities and is aware of the sentiments of everyone not just the majority Hindu upper-caste. A nation built on hate and polarisation cannot prosper, as certain parties seem to think, and that is more than evident in the dismal performance of the economy. It’s time to vote and vote well, as a nation that is one of the biggest democracies, that doesn’t believe in glib talk and partisan politics.
The writer is the chairperson of the AICC grievance cell. The views expressed here are personal.
