After the great India-Asean show in Delhi, it’s time to walk the talk!

Ever since he was elected to office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been coming up with “out-of- the-box” diplomatic initiatives, which surprise his fans and detractors alike. But these aren’t whimsical moves; instead, they are cool, calibrated and well thought-out initiatives which carry multiple signals: for domestic constituencies, neighbours, regional powers and the international community at large.

His decision to invite all the leaders of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) members to his swearing-in ceremony in June 2014, inviting the US President to be the chief guest at the Republic Day parade in January 2015, holding India-Africa Forum Summit in October 2015  and now inviting all the 10 heads of state and government of the Asean to be the chief guests at the Republic Day parade marking the 25th anniversary of India-Asean relations with a catchy theme: Shared Values, Common Destiny underline Mr Modi’s imaginative diplomacy and his outreach vision for Asia and beyond.

Mr Modi is aware of the impressive economic progress achieved by the Asean; presently, its combined GDP of $2.8 trillion is higher than India’s GDP of around $ 2.5 trillion and per capita income of $4219 is more than double the per capita income of $1,852 in India. It has emerged as a manufacturing hub and service provider, a major link in international supply chains.

India’s centuries-old historical, cultural, religious and sea trade links with South East Asia are well-known; influence of Ramayana, Buddhism and Angkor Wat in Cambodia and the world’s largest Buddhist temple in Borobudur, Indonesia are living examples of the same.

Mr Modi believes that India’s relations with South East Asia will be determined by the three Cs, culture, commerce and connectivity. Perhaps, connectivity, commerce and culture might be the right order.

Without dependable, all-weather, modern connectivity, commerce will remain stymied and without these two, cultural connections won’t expand.

Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong stressed that connectivity in the areas of air, land, maritime and digital will reinforce business and people to people links between the two sides, benefitting both.

Though the rise in bilateral trade by 25 times in 25 years is praiseworthy, the figure of $73 billion is still meagre if seen in the light of the fact that Asean’s annual trade with China has risen to $473 billion.

India accounts just 2.6 per cent share of Asean’s global trade, which means a huge potential still remains virtually unexplored.

The target for bilateral trade to touch $200 billion by 2022 is looks a mite ambitious, but is achievable through, as the Declaration stresses, “full utilisation and effective implementation of the Asean-India Free Trade Area”.

Mr Modi is aware of the Asean’s increasing uneasiness about the assertiveness and territorial claims of China in spite of the fact that the country remains the largest trading partner of each member of the group. China’s assertions that it is “ready to work with other coastal states and the global community to ensure the safety of and the unimpeded access to the international shipping lanes in the South China Sea” hasn’t allayed Asean’s concerns fully.

These converge with apprehensions of India, the US, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and Australia about the sea trade lanes in South and East China Sea through which passes roughly one-third of global maritime trade that China estimates to be at around $3.6 trillion.

India’s trade through South China Sea is edstimated at US$186 billion, roughly 30 per cent of its global trade.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to exit from the TPP has created considerable uncertainty in the Asean about the Mr Trump’s commitment to Asia though his administration has been laying emphasis on the maintenance of peace and stability in Indo-Pacific region (the new US Ambassador to India Ken Juster in his policy speech last month mentioned Indo-Pacific 13 times!).

At such a juncture, India and Asean with the combined population of 1.8 billion and estimated GDP of $4.5 trillion can become a formidable political, economic and geostrategic force in the region to be reckoned with.

The US emphasis on Indo-Pacific region shouldn’t be a problem for India; it acknowledges India’s pivotal role in the region.

It also comes close on his maiden foray at World Economic Forum in Davos on January 23 where he delivered a lofty inaugural address befitting a world statesman underlining the ideal of Vasudhaiva Kutumbkam and the need for peace, harmony and cooperation.

Mr Modi also highlighted the virtues of globalisation, climate change agreement, fighting terrorism and adverse impact of protectionism.

The successful conclusion of India-Asean Commemorative Summit has only enhanced Mr Modi’s stature, not only as a national, but as a world leader.

Shouldn’t this be a shot in the arm for his party (BJP) in general elections in near future?

The Delhi Declaration will have also reverberations in China and Pakistan as there are certain references, which directly point out to them without naming them.

Para 6 reaffirms the importance of maintenance and promotion of “peace, stability, maritime safety and security, freedom of navigation and over flights in the region and other lawful uses of seas and unimpeded/ maritime commerce” and peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including United  Nations Convention on the law of the Sea, Internatiuonal Civil Aviuation Organisation,  International Maritime organisation and effective implementation of Declaration on the Conduct of the parties in the South China Sea and early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea; it is unmistakably aimed at China.

Similarly, Para 11 which talks of “disrupting and countering terrorists, terrorist groups and networks, including by countering cross-border movement of terrorists” has a clear reference to Pakistan.

The declaration also talks of intensifying efforts this year towards “swift conclusion of a modern, comprehensive, high quality and mutually beneficial Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). India has been wary of the RCEP for fear of the Indian market being flooded with the Chinese products. India-Myanmar- Thailand trilateral highway project and its extension to Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam and India-Myanmar Kaladan multimodal transport corridor, which will boost the economic development in the Northeast in India would require serious endeavours for completion. In this connection India’s credit line of US$1 billion, though modest, for physical infrastructure and digital connectivity is a step in the right direction.

The participating leaders have further emphasised the need to deepen maritime cooperation, including conservation and sustainable use of marine resources in the Indian and Pacific Ocean in accordance with International law.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who is Asean chairperson, said, “India makes a major contribution to regional affairs, helping to keep the regional architecture open, balanced and inclusive.”

 He felt that as India and the Asean look to the future, trade and connectivity remain two focus areas.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, on the other hand, felt that identifying trade andinvestment cooperation jointly would be the main engine of the ASEAN-India strategic partnership. It’s time to walk the talk.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat