An anti-BJP front could be visible at the national level in the next 15 to 20 months. It could be a revival of the now defunct United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or in the name of a Secular Front, indicated a regional heavyweight leader.
The leader, who does not wish to be on record, said alliances with anti-BJP parties would be at the state level. While the Congress would be a senior ally in states where it is strong, it will become a junior partner of regional parties where they are strong, he opined.
Early indications show an anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan against the incumbent BJP governments has already reflected in the local body election results. Besides, the outcome of the West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Punjab Assembly polls, to be held in the coming months, would be significant politically.
If Aam Admi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal, JD(U)-RJD leaders Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav have already proved that they can check the BJP in Delhi and Bihar despite its spectacular performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the victory in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls. But Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in early 2017 would be a serious challenge before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team in the BJP and the ruling Samajwadi Party. It will be interesting to see how the Mayawati-led BSP could gain space on its own in the multi-cornered contest.
The BJP has to fight on its own in Uttar Pradesh after the success in the general election. This is because an alliance with a junior player there would be seen as a lack of confidence in the saffron party despite the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself represents the state after winning the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat.
According to sources, the Congress could become relevant if it wins Punjab, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh and ensures a hung Assembly in Gujarat.
In Maharashtra, the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led party have started working together in the local body elections. Although the Congress has been lacking a “face” after the untimely death of Vilasrao Desh-mukh, its support base has not been eroded completely.
The Congress is unlikely to revive in Andhra Pradesh after its bifurcation and will have to work hard to become relevant in Telangana. This means the grand old party may not emerge as a player in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Jharkhand on its own.
