If the mood of the electorate is any indicator, the growing cohesiveness in the AGP-BJP-BPF alliance seems to have been putting up a formidable challenge to the ruling Congress in Assam. Though many observers have been defining the electoral scenario of the state as a complex one, the indigenous population, having regional aspirations, is finding itself more comfortable with the AGP-BJP alliance.
As a resident of Kamlapur Assembly segment, Azizoor Rahman points out, “Prior to the AGP-BJP alliance, there was a visible wave in favour of Congress candidate Pranjit Choudhury but since the seat has gone to the AGP and Satyabrata Kalita has been nominated as the joint candidate of the alliance, the mood of the electorate has started changing.” Pointing out that the BJP has sacrificed its sitting seat Kamalpur to the AGP, Mr Rahman said that people of the constituency were not happy with the performance of BJP MLA Jadav Deka in the past five years but the Opposition may succeed in defending this seat by giving it to the AGP.
Political observers also refer the case of another seat having urban influence —— Dispur, where a sizeable chunk of Bodo voters is expected to switch over to the BJP. Ruling Congress candidate and ex-minister Akon Bora has been winning from the seat since two consecutive terms just because of its alliance with the Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF).
Even Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi admits that his party, which has been in power since 2001 suffers from serious anti-incumbency.
If alliance of a national party BJP with regional political forces has been an advantage, BJP’s strong posturing against immigration from Bangladesh, big dams and the land swap deal with Bangladesh in Lok Sabha polls but making a flip-flop on these issues after coming to power at the Centre may go against the alliance. The AGP is quite vigilant about the U-turn of BJP on these issues as AGP president Atul Bora clarified that their stand on land-swap deal and high dam remains the same. “We have entered into an alliance with BJP on basis of a common minimum programme,” said Mr Bora who was highly critical of BJP leadership for signing the land-swap deal with Bangladesh. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election speeches during Lok Sabha elections had assured that his government would not give even single-inch of its land to Bangladesh.
