In what may be a decisive factor in the formation of the next government in Assam, the electorates of 65 out of 126 constituencies in southern Assam’s Barak Valley and tea belt of Upper Assam are set to seal their verdict in electronic voting machines on Monday.
The first phase of polling on April 4 is significant for both the Congress and BJP. If Congress considers its stronghold, the BJP is hoping to turn these areas saffron in the April 4 polling.
Southern Assam’s Barak Valley, comprising the three districts — Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi, sharing borders with Bangladesh, has 15 seats. In 2011, the Congress won 13 seats while the Bharatiya Janata Party failed to open its account. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) had one seat each. The tea belt of Assam is equally important for both the Congress and BJP. Tea workers’ communities, popularly known as tea tribes, play the deciding role in at least 35 Assembly segments. In 2011 Assembly polls, the BJP could win only one of these seats while the Congress had 26. However, BJP refers to the result of 2014 Lok Sabha polls in which BJP candidates took lead from 26 out of 69 Assembly segments.
The elections of Barak Valley revolve around the issue of citizenship to Hindu Bangladeshi migrants. Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi had swept the poll in 2011 merely by assuring shelter and citizenship to all Hindu Bangladeshi migrants. However, Mr Gogoi’s failure in fulfilling these promises has given tools to BJP, which intends to make their presence felt in the April 4 elections.
The ruling Congress party is confident of maintaining its 2011 performance in Barak Valley as they refer in 2014, the “Modi-wave” swept the Brahmaputra Valley but failed to make any impact in southern Assam.
The BJP, however, is relying on two notifications issued by the central government under the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 and the Foreigners Act, 1946, which gives official assurance of providing shelter to “Bangladeshi Hindus” fleeing to India due to alleged persecution.
The BJP is equally confident of consolidating its hold in the tea-belt of Upper Assam by projecting two of its MPs — from Dibrugarh Rameswar Teli, and Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from Jorhat — as frontline leaders of the party in Assam. The BJP has fielded Mr Tasa against incumbent chief minister Tarun Gogoi in Titabor Assembly constituency to grill him on his home turf.
The 190-year-old Assam tea industry employs about five lakh permanent workers and about six lakh temporary workers, with about 50 per cent of them being women. The state accounts for more than half of the country’s total tea production.
The ruling Congress and BJP have left no stone unturned to woo the tea garden voters by offering various benefits including ST status and a hike in their minimum wages.
Both the Congress and the BJP have been promising ST status to tea tribes along with five other communities — Koch-Rajbangshis, Tai-Ahoms, Morans, Chutias and Mataks — and the two parties have been blaming each other for non-inclusion of these six communities in the ST list and have made it a major poll plank.
The political observers are of the view that the turnout and mood of electorates in the first phase of polling would decide the fate of next government in 2016.
