The record 78 per cent polling in the first phase of the Assam Assembly polls — being interpreted as a vote for a change by both the BJP and the Congress — might surprise many poll pundits in Assam.
Known to be a stronghold of the Congress party, the districts that went to polls on Monday in the first phase had elected as many as 55 Congress MLAs in 2011. However, the high voter turnout and active participation of young and first-time voters have given the BJP a reason to smile as most political observers see the trend as an advantage for the BJP-led alliance.
Assam BJP president and chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal claimed the BJP-led alliance would get the maximum number of seats out of the 65 that went to polls in the first phase. BJP campaign committee chief Himanta Biswa Sarma, however, put the figure at 40, saying picking up that many seats in the first phase meant the party was heading to dethrone the Congress in Assam.
Mr Shyam Kanu Mahanta, a political observer who equates high voter turnout with anti-establishment sentiments, said, “Whenever polling percentage is high, the verdict goes against the ruling party. This has been a trend in Assam since 1985.” He argues, “While the Congress has already lost much of its original core vote base among migrant Muslims, Bengali Hindus and tea garden labourers, the young and first-time voters have come out in large numbers. It seems the Congress is on its way out.”
Political observers also attribute polarisation of anti-foreigner sentiments as one of the main reasons for the heavy voter turnout in the first phase. “The ethnic indigenous voters, who are grappling with the fear of a demographic invasion, are encouraged to find their champions on one platform led by the BJP,” political observers felt.
It is significant that there have been few elections when Bodos, spread over 50 Assembly segments, have polarised along with indigenous Assamese voters in Assam.
