In Uttar Pradesh, where political pandits are claiming that the electoral battle will be between the ruling Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s BSP in 2017, the BJP is likely to name an OBC to head its state unit. In this electorally crucial state, OBCs constitute a majority segment of the total population. The saffron party, which is often accused by its opponents of polarising votes and playing the “Hindutva card”, is said to be considering the name of Phulpur MP and OBC leader Keshav Prasad Maurya for the post. Mr Maurya was close to the late VHP leader Ashok Singhal and had also participated in the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had won 71 of the 80 parliamentary seats in UP but has only 47 members in the 403-member Assembly.
The Ram Janmabhoomi movement had also played a significant role in bringing the saffron party to the national political scene. The names of Union minister Ramshankar Katheria, party’s state unit vice-president Ashok Katheria and senior leader Swatantra Dev Singh, all OBC faces, are also doing the rounds for the post of state unit chief. A section within the BJP is also in favour of joining hands with Ajit Singh’s RLD to woo Jat votes as the party’s feedback suggests that the farmer community is miffed with the BJP-led Central government for failing on most of its poll promises regarding the sector.
Sources disclosed that reports reaching the party’s central leadership on its poll prospects in UP, which is now also represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are not very encouraging. Many state BJP leaders feel that the party has failed to sustain the “NaMo wave”. The party’s performance in the recent bypolls and local body polls has also been lacklustre.
Other than the OBCs (excluding Yadavs), the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) factor also plays a crucial role in UP’s politics and had supported Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP last time. Routed in last year’s Lok Sabha elections, the BSP is being described by many as the probable “silent killer” in the 2017 Assembly elections with the dalit votebank said to firmly supporting her. Known for tactical voting, the minority voters are also said to be considering supporting the BSP this time.
Learning from its mistakes in the Delhi and Bihar polls, the BJP, it is learnt, has already started the process of considering candidates as the leadership wants that nominees should be given ample time to campaign. However, it is the leadership issue that is expected to damage the BJP, whose core votebank, the upper caste, have split in the past.
BJP poll managers are also worried with the way the ruling SP is strategically using its development card to beat the BJP’s development agenda. The Akhilesh Yadav government has given clearance to Metro rail projects in the parliamentary constituencies of senior BJP leaders, including the Prime Minister and Union ministers. The state government has also sanctioned development projects in many temple towns, including Mathura, Ayodhya and Varanasi.
