The Congress is keeping close tabs on the faction in three significant parties — BJP, Samajwadi Party and BSP — ahead of the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. While it is watching every move of BSP rebel Swami Prasad Mourya on whether he could turn to be the next Jitan Ram Manjhi in UP, the saffron party’s reluctance to announce its chief ministerial candidate is also being seen as a sign of division in the party.
As per the Congress’ assessment, minorities would not vote en bloc for the Samajwadi Party just as they had voted for the JD(U)-RJD-Congress combine in the Bihar polls held last year. The Congress is also ruling out a pre-poll alliance with the BSP “as of now”.
“You can see “uthal-puthal” (fast developments) in UP after Eid,” said a Congress strategist. Desertions have already started from the BSP with Swami Prasad Mourya turning a rebel. The SP, meanwhile, is bringing back loyalists like Amar Singh, Beni Prasad Verma realising that anti-incumbeny and law and order situation could work against it in the coming polls.
Although the Congress is pegging its hope on Brahmins and a section of upper castes, besides its traditional voters, the party, along with the SP and the BSP, is yet to decide their main opponent in the upcoming battle.
The current picture in UP is still unclear mainly because caste combinations are changing, minorities are assessing who can defeat the BJP, while the latter is playing two cards — polarisation and developments — simultaneously to win over the masses.
Relying on local leaders to deliver, the AICC is still looking for a “charismatic” leader who can make caste and religion vote banks redundant. The party pointsman, Ghulam Nabi Azad, foresees that the election process could begin early next year and his main objective is to create an atmosphere that no party, other than the BJP, can form a government without the Congress.
The Congress is yet to decide whether to fight the battle with the current team, promote Priyanka Gandhi or bank on Prashant Kishor to strengthen the booth committees.
