‘Poll of polls’ gives NDA 273, UPA 140

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to lead the ruling NDA alliance’s return to power, albeit with a wafer thin majority, an average of four opinion polls has indicated amid signs of BJP campaign’s focus on national security appearing to trump concerns over jobs and farm distress.

With just two days left for the first phase of the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls to kick off on Thursday, the poll of polls — an average of four major opinion polls — predicted that the NDA coalition may win 273 of the 543 Parliament seats at stake, one more than the halfway mark, with the BJP bagging 228 seats on its own. In 2014 election, the alliance won 336 seats — the biggest mandate in three decades. The BJP had won 282 seats on its own.

Opinion polls also predict that Rahul Gandhi-led Congress may double its dismal 2014 tally to 88 seats, but the party is unlikely to wrest power from the ruling BJP. The Congress, along with its allies, may win around 141 seats. Other parties and Independents, predicted to win 129 seats, may become an important factor.

In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP’s tally is likely to come down drastically. The Samajwadi Party-BSP-RLD alliance, polls predict, is set to take away a big chunk — 36 seats — from the BJP’s 2014 score of 71, bringing down the saffron party’s total to 40 in the key Hindi heartland state.

As per surveys released in the last few days, Mr Modi received a boost from recent tension with Pakistan after Jaish-e-Mohammed killed over 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama on February 14.

Muscular nationalism, which has been a major plank of the BJP, seems to be working in favour of the party. “In today’s India we have seen, perhaps for the first-time, security issues competing with, and outdoing, a bread-and-butter issue like unemployment,” C-Voter said in a statement.

The statement said that “the BJP has been unable to sufficiently distinguish itself from Congress when it came to making people feel the difference in terms of their livelihoods and economic interests… When it comes to controlling and responding on terror, the same set of respondents do feel a clear and visible difference”.

C-Voter’s poll is the most conservative, predicting 267 seats for the ruling alliance. The Times Now-VMR’s poll is the most bullish of the lot, predicting 279 seats for the NDA. C-Voter has predicted 142 seats for the UPA while Times Now-VMR has given the UPA 149 seats.

India TV-CNX predicted 275 seats for the NDA and 147 for the UPA, while CSDS Lokniti claimed that the NDA could bag anything between 263 to 283 seats and the UPA may end up with 115-135 seats.

Over the past several elections in the country, opinion polls have failed to be accurate. While most exit polls had predicted a victory for the BJP-led NDA in 2014,
none had predicted a clear majority to the BJP.

As per records, India Today-Cicero predicted 261-183 for the NDA and 110-120 seats for the Congress. India TV-C-Voter had predicted 289 for the NDA and 100 for the UPA. The results showed that the NDA swept the elections with 336 seats and UPA was decimated and reduced to 60 seats.

The 2019 elections are to be held in seven phases between April 11 and May 19, with results on May 23.