New Delhi: The virtual collapse of the Samajwadi Party on Friday evening has put the Bharatiya Janata Party back on top of the ladder in the forthcoming Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh. After the demonetisation move, the BJP had reportedly slipped down to the third position and the fight was expected to be between the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
With Friday’s developments, it now seems that the fight will be between the BJP and the BSP, with the former having an edge because of the possible division of the Muslim and Yadav votebanks.
Muslims, which have so far backed Mulayam Singh Yadav, could now split between the father, the son and the dalit leader, Mayawati. Same could happen to the Yadav votebank, splitting between Akhilesh and Mulayam. If this indeed happens, it would be advantage BJP which already has the upper caste votes in its kitty.
A section in BJP, however, cautions that while the obvious outcome is that the Muslim and Yadav votebanks will split, the developments in SP could also consolidate the 20 per cent Muslim votebank in favour of Mayawati.
In 2007 Assembly elections, when Mayawati came to power with full majority, she had the support of Muslims, dalits and Brahmins.
If Muslims, who dominate 125 of the 403 Assembly constituencies, gravitate towards the BSP, the state could see the return of Ms Mayawati as the BJP has not been able to make a dent in her dalit vote bank.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, not a single Muslim MP was elected to Parliament from UP.
Mulayam and Mayawati are likely to play the Muslim card in their campaign, but it remains to be seen whether Muslim voters will vote tactically or are left confused by the developments, the latter scenario bringing cheer to the BJP.
The third possibility, though it now seems like an uphill task, is Akhilesh floating a new party and going to the polls as an alliance partner of the Congress and the RLD.
If this happens, a huge chunk of the Muslim votebank could move towards the “secular alliance” and benefit “bhaiyya”, as Akhilesh is fondly called. With Akhilesh being a young face and a future leader, a large chunk of the Yadav vote bank could also shift towards him.
There are reports that despite his expulsion, talks between Akhilesh and the Congress are still on. Trinamul Congress leader and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has reportedly extended her support to Akhilesh.
