The process of political realignment could begin after the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, which will be held early next year, irrespective of which party comes to power. While the Samajwadi Party and BSP, the Trinamul Congress and Left, the AIADMK and DMK cannot work together and could split between two, the fronts led by the BJP and likely to be led by the Congress under Sonia Gandhi, the BJD and the TRS, cannot afford to work with either the BJP or the Congress as the two national parties will try to regain their political space in Orissa and Telangana.
“The UP and Gujarat Assembly elections will decide who will rule the Centre after 2019,” said a Congress strategist while a senior BJD MP said, “The UP polls are going to be a turning point in Indian politics.”
Political leaders are assessing whether the BJP would strengthen the NDA or prefer to face the next Lok Sabha elections in 2019 on its own under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. This is because the NDA is now a lose combination of regional parties that came together due to state level compulsions.
If Hindutva is no more a binding force between the BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, the TDP’s priority is to check the Congress and the BJP from gaining space in Andhra Pradesh. The LJP, the RSLP and the PDP could ally with any party for power. In fact, the PDP is not even a constituent of the NDA despite the fact that it is sharing power with the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir.
Among the non NDA and non UPA (currently defunct) parties, at least five key players will have to find a role for themselves after the UP polls. They are : AIADMK,Trinamul Congress, Samajwadi Party and BJD, which are in power in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and the Mayawati-led party.
While the JD(U), RJD, NCP, DMK, Left and National Conference are comfortable with the Congress, the role of the AAP, JD(S) and even the Shiromani Akali Dal could become clearer in the coming months. The current picture is the anti-BJP front is divided, but will it help Mr Modi in getting another term.
