Even as Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has projected Samajwadi Party boss Mulayam Singh Yadav as a prime ministerial candidate, the regional parties, divided among different camps, cannot get the post without the backing of either the Congress or the BJP if one goes by history.
Although Morarji Desai had become Prime Minister in 1977 as his Janata Party got an absolute majority, the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh was a key constituent of the Janata Party even after its merger.
While Charan Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral became Prime Ministers on Congress’ outside support, V.P. Singh became PM due to the outside support of the BJP and the CPI(M) in 1989.
The Samajwadi Party does not have a presence outside Uttar Pradesh and its OBC card, too, has not been working in Bihar and the rest of the Hindi-speaking belt. But it is optimistic that chief ministers Mamata Banerjee (Trinamul Congress), Jayalalithaa (AIADMK), Naveen Patnaik (BJD) and Nitish Kumar (JD-U) would back Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav to check the BJP in 2019. However, his acceptability among them is a big question mark due to past experience.
While the SP had made a U-turn on the nuclear deal issue by backing the Congress and leaving the Left parties in the lurch, Mr Mulayam Singh suddenly took a line different from that of Ms Mamata Banerjee in the last presidential election.
Over a dozen political parties which have preserved their space by checking the BJP and the Congress do not see Mr Mulayam Singh as their natural choice.
These parties are the AIADMK, DMK, Trinamul Congress, BJD, TDP, TRS, YSR Congress Party, NCP, JD(S), INLD, RLD and National Conference, besides the Left.
And the BSP, led by Ms Mayawati, cannot be a pre-poll or post-poll ally of the SP for obvious reasons. The Modi factor might have brought arch-rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav together in the Bihar Assembly polls but is very unlikely to bring the SP and BSP together in UP.
The RJD, led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, is the only party which supports Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav in this campaign.
Meanwhile, chief ministers who are trying to stay equidistant from the Congress and the BJP, like Ms Mamata Banerjee, Ms Jayalalithaa and Mr Naveen Patnaik, have so far maintained silence on this issue while Mr Nitish Kumar, too, has not reacted to Mr Akhilesh Yadav’s announcement so far.
