Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a 65 per cent chance of winning the US presidential election, according to a leading opinion poll website which said her decline in poll numbers has levelled off and her lead has held steady over the past several days.
The website FiveThirtyEight said that Ms Clinton has a 65.3 per cent chance of winning the presidency, according to its polls-only forecast, which is less than the 81 per cent had been forecast for her just before FBI director James Comey had told Congress in October that he was reviewing additional emails pertinent to the case of Ms Clinton’s email server.
While the percentage declined for Ms Clinton it is still ahead of Mr Trump’s who has a 34.6 per cent chance of winning the presidency.
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House and Ms Clinton is expected to get 291.9 electoral votes as compared to 245.3 for Mr Trump.
The analysis predicted that Ms Clinton could get 48.3 per cent of the popular vote while Mr Trump 45.4 per cent.
FiveThirtyEight founder and editor-in-chief Nate Silver said in a blog post that it is hard to say whether Ms Clinton’s numbers will rebound now that Mr Comey told Congress that the emails on former Representative Anthony Weiner’s computer won’t change his earlier conclusions about Ms Clinton.
Mr Silver added that Mr Trump should also get some credit for having been comparatively disciplined on the campaign trail, with the Republican nominee gaining about two points in national polls since October 28.
“Still, while Clinton’s chances were slightly declining already after she came off her post-debate peak, now the decline has levelled off, and her lead has held steady over the past several days,” he said.
Mr Silver said it will be hard to say whether the latest Mr Comey letter will help Ms Clinton as any change will really come too late to be picked up on by most polls.
