How much will we eat in the future?
Washington: Researchers have now analysed how the actual quantity of food that people would like to eat is likely to change. A rising Body Mass Index (BMI), which evaluates weight in relation to height, and an increasing body height lead to a marked increase in global calorie requirements. The results have been published in the journal PLOS ONE.
In most countries, the average body height and body size is increasing. More needs to be eaten to maintain a higher weight. Development economist Professor Stephan Klasen, from the Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Gottingen, and his then doctoral student, Lutz Depenbusch, have designed a scenario to investigate how calorie intake could develop between 2010 and 2100.
Earlier changes in the Netherlands and Mexico were used as a benchmark. "The developments in these countries are very pronounced," says Depenbusch, "but they do represent a realistic scenario." Even if both BMI and height were to remain constant, global calorie requirements would still increase by more than 60 per cent by 2100 because of population growth.
With rising BMI, as observed in Mexico, and increasing height, as seen in the Netherlands, there would be a further increase of more than 18 per cent. This means the increase in global calorie requirements between 2010 and 2100 would be one third larger, reaching a total increase of nearly 80 per cent. If global food production does not meet this increased need, the researchers fear that this problem will not be controlled by a corresponding decrease in BMI.
While richer people will be able to maintain their eating habits, the poor would suffer greatly from higher prices due to increased demand. "This would lead to increased consumption of cheap food, often rich in calories but poor in nutrients," says Depenbusch. "As a result, body weight among the poor would continue to rise alongside malnutrition and poorer health outcomes."