Sunil Gatade | A bizarre controversy on the exit poll predictions

On Tuesday, June 4, the nation will learn who will come to power after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the announcement of the much-awaited results that will decide the fate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP, the world’s largest party, as well as of the Opposition parties.

But before the actual counting, much drama and dispute has been seen over the exit poll predictions that have spoken of a landslide for the BJP under Mr Modi.

It has curiously run into a controversy with the Opposition seeking to dismiss the findings and insisting it was very much in the race to come to power. Such a counter-offensive by the opposition is an unprecedented move, turning the whole situation a little bizarre.

Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut, himself a journalist, claimed the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. grouping is thick in the game and could win 295 of the total 543 seats, which has added much curiosity as to what is in store. His claim came a day after the meeting of I.N.D.I.A. leaders.

Never in the past has any Opposition questioned the outcome of the exit polls in such a forceful manner, questioning the very intent of the polling companies and suggesting that there is more to it than meets the eye.

The nation had seen such a landslide in 1971 and 1984 in the wake of the Bangladesh war and the assassination of Indira Gandhi. In contrast, the 2024 election is a “normal” one.

The exit poll predictions show unequivocally that the BJP under Mr Modi is way ahead in the Lok Sabha race against the I.N.D.I.A. grouping, one of whose main constituents is the Congress.

The actual numbers will put a stamp of approval/disapproval on the business of exit polls, pre-poll surveys and such exercises in the world’s largest democracy. The outcome is expected to reveal what has weighed on the minds of voters, what has gone wrong for the rival sides and what has helped them. It must be conceded that the just-concluded campaign was the toughest one for Prime Minister Modi, who has been on a winning spree since Gujarat days in 2002.

This election will go down in history as the most puzzling for Mr Modi, as the hero of many an electoral battle who was fighting in the dark this time. Many commentators had claimed that Mr Modi may have missed the bus this time as he had delayed the announcement of the polls, which according to them should have happened in January after the Ram Mandir’s inauguration in Ayodhya.

The two-month-long election schedule too looked a bit troublesome with the BJP, which was intended for Mr Modi to have much time for campaigning but appeared too tiring for him for want of a narrative.

If the exit poll predictions prove true, the lesson for the Opposition is that they could be a fighting force in states where they have worked hard and joined hands in fierce combat, and that the same must be replicated at the national level.

The exit polls show that the Opposition is doing much better in states like Maharashtra and Bihar because there they not only worked hard but unitedly too.

The moral of the story is that Mr Modi is not invincible and could be contained or defeated if the Opposition works purposefully with a plan of action and has boots on the ground.

The Opposition leaders, such as Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar or Tejashwi Yadav, could make a mark due to their connection with the grassroots, running an effective campaign and playing the victim card aggressively in the face of the BJP juggernaut.

There have been pluses for the BJP side too. The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor has been working in favour of Mr Modi. Besides, both Mr Modi and Amit Shah are known to be hard taskmasters when it comes to fighting the polls.

A section in the BJP, however, insists Mr Modi is the past master in the polarisation game. His Hindu-Muslim rhetoric has silently mobilised the majority and the Hindutva card will be seen in action. It feels a sizeable section of Hindus don’t buy the caste census logic, which it feels is past its expiry date.

The reporters of a news website not known to be Modi admirers insisted that what they saw during the campaign was that the BJP was very much on the ground and fighting hard.

But the experience was also that in states like Uttar Pradesh, the BJP was suffering some losses due to its failure to change candidates. For the Opposition, the lesson of the 2024 election season is that you cannot win a poll if you start preparing at the last moment and fail to project a united face. 

In West Bengal, where chief minister Mamata Banerjee appears under intense pressure, the Trinamul boss broke ranks with her I.N.D.I.A. allies to ensure that only the TMC gets the maximum number of seats.

There have been minuses too for the BJP. Despite being hailed as “Sher” by his supporters, Mr Modi was at a loss to clinch an issue that would drive a big wedge in the rival camp and take the poll battle into their territory. 

Issues like price rise, unemployment and growing inequality raised by the Opposition did have resonance in the polls. 

On the face of it, it did not appear that Hindutva has raised much crescendo in the minds of the majority community.

The Prime Minister’s failure to correctly gauge the mood of the people by harping on the right issues and raising the pitch speaks poorly of the mighty election machinery of the world’s largest party. How can they go so wrong?

Mr Modi has been good at sensing the mood of the people and this was seen in 2014 and 2019.

This time, he was like a character in the story in which some blind men were asked to specify their impression about the elephant. So, shooting in the dark, Mr Modi used all cards: Ram Mandir, Pakistan, dynasty, appeasement politics. The name of the game was polarisation.

Two decades back, Subhash Ghai had come out with a film Yaadein, which was sold out at exorbitant rates in all regions and the music rights too fetched much moolah. But the film flopped at the box office, leaving just Yaadein.

One thing did happen after Yaadein. Ghai was no longer the magic man of Bollywood. Tuesday will reveal the fate of Mr Modi, but one thing is clear — this was not his best election.