Fourteen months after a blistering ethnic war broke out between the majority Meiteis and the Kuki tribal people in Manipur, the state continues to be in a crisis of humongous proportions. The Kukis cannot set foot in the Imphal Valley, the heartland of the Meiteis and the most developed part of Manipur, where the state capital Imphal is located, and the Meiteis cannot venture into the hills, to districts like Churachandpur, Tengnoupal, Kangpokpi and others. It is because of fear for their lives. This also goes on to explain the level of animosity and distrust among the communities who had, otherwise, lived together in relative harmony for ages. And yes, 10 Kuki-Zo legislators, including two ministers in chief minister N. Biren Singh’s Cabinet, too, have not come to the capital Imphal during the past 14 months and neither have they attended proceedings in the State Assembly or visited their offices.
A year into the ethnic conflagration, the dynamics have changed a lot. The phase of euphoria over the looting of arms and ammunition from police and paramilitary armouries in the Imphal Valley seems to be over. Well, estimates said around 5,000 weapons and 500,000 rounds of ammunition were looted by mobs during the peak of the violence, turning Manipur into one of the most militarised regions in the country. The ordinary people of the state appear to have come down to taking stock of their day-to-day lives, like the education of their children, trade and business and attending to or finding jobs. It is certain there has been a flight of capital from Manipur with those who have the means purchasing apartments in peaceful cities in the neighbourhood, like Guwahati, for example.
This week, local politicians admitted they were under pressure from their electorate and constituents to resolve the situation, end the violence and restore order in Manipur. The question that saner elements in society were asking for so long was why the government, both at the Centre and in the state, have failed thus far to bring about an end to the violence.
Now, this question has turned into a chorus. Last week, chief minister N. Biren Singh chaired a meeting of the BJP-led NDA MLAs in Imphal and heard them. There are murmurs among the ruling combine MLAs, some of whom are in favour of resigning since they have not succeeded in bringing back peace in the state.
It is a fact that the failure of the Centre and the Biren Singh government to restore order and end the 14-month-lomg conflict has cost the BJP dear. The NDA has lost both the Manipur Lok Sabha seats to the Congress in the just-concluded parliamentary elections. Now, the Biren Singh government and the alliance partners – the BJP, JD-U, Nationalist People Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) -- are feeling the heat. Many of the MLAs landed in New Delhi last week to meet senior national leaders and plead with the Centre to end the violence in Manipur.
Just before the MLAs had arrived in the national capital, Union home minister Amit Shah reviewed the security situation with the state governor and the nation’s top security brass, including the Army Chief. But the big question is this: was that security review by the Union home minister an initiative that was too little, too late?
On Monday (July 1), as chief minister Biren Singh said in Imphal that now was not the time for him as the chief minister or other leaders to step down because they have to steer the state from this crisis, in Parliament, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not visiting Manipur and the Modi government for allowing the situation to drift.
On Wednesday though, Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally addressed the issue in the Rajya Sabha, saying violence in Manipur was on the decline and that the Centre and the state government were making all efforts to restore peace in the state. The Prime Minister said that Manipur was placed under President’s Rule 10 times in the past obviously because there were problems, and that did not happen during BJP rule. He asked the Congress not to add fuel to the fire. This can be taken as an indication that the BJP-led Biren Singh government in Manipur is there to stay undisturbed.
But, the road ahead in Manipur is fraught with challenges. First, it is a challenge to bring the two communities together, face-to-face for talks. This is because they are stuck firmly to their own positions, and second, because the talks must happen, if at all, in a neutral location. Finding a neutral location may be easy, but making them budge from their stands is difficult. The Kukis are saying they cannot live or function any more with the Meiteis and should, therefore, get a “separate administration”, which could mean a Union territory.
The Meiteis are for a united Manipur, but without the Kukis who they claim have infiltrated from Myanmar and should, therefore, be pushed back. Chief minister N. Biren Singh says not all Kukis are illegal migrants and that they are only against the real illegal migrants. The Meitei civil society is pushing for a National Register of Citizens to come up in Manipur. The battle lines are clearly drawn.
It is important that peace returns to Manipur and the place be de-militarised. The authorities must get the looted weapons back. There were already 30 or more active insurgent groups in Manipur and, now, following the ethnic riots, civilians or radical groups have come to possess automatic weapons which are part of the loot.
Manipur, through Myanmar, is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia and is, therefore, right at the centre of India’s “Act East” policy. Manipur is a land bridge between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and as such is vital to India’s neighbourhood first policy. Such a strategic frontier province in such chaos and that too for over a year is something beyond comprehension. Moreover, Myanmar itself is in turmoil with anti-junta forces pushing the military dictators to the wall. In this backdrop, the leaders in New Delhi are expected to wake up from their slumber. Many things may happen if the state is ignored further -- it might intensify separatist sentiments and give life to pre-merger ideas.
