Abhijit Bhattacharyya | Why New Delhi needs to take fresh look at Beijing
With the Narendra Modi government having begun a fresh term last month, it is time for it to undertake a full-scale review of its policy towards the People’s Republic of China. One only has to see the sordid happenings during its 2019-2024 second term. This included the Dragon’s unilateral push to Delhi to the precipice, to show who's the real boss of Asia, especially South Asia.
The unilateralism shown by the post-1949 Communist Party of China and its overlord, Chairman Mao Zedong, has now rubbed off on his successors. Little wonder then that what Mao did to India in 1950s and 1962, Xi Jinping did to India in 2019-2024 with vengeance. History repeated itself in its ugliest form to hit the 21st century successors of India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (1947-1964).
Nehru, a liberal, had idealism and a vision, which regrettably led to his monumental China failure. It will be wrong, however, to look at Nehru’s broad vision and policies only through the China prism, for he also had mega-successes which far outweigh the negativity. Just as non-violence was Mahatma Gandhi’s path-breaking means to end British rule, “non-alignment” and “Panchsheel” were Nehru’s enduring contributions to the world of diplomacy. India still follows this path with great elan, as seen by the world in the 28-month ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. So far, India has done very well; thanks to inherited wisdom of the professional mandarins of South Block, who have kept the ship of state steady, even in a rocky ambience of deceptive Chinese hostility and Western diplomatic irritants and pressure.
In dealing with China, one has to be prepared for more deception. Remember Mao’s formula of “one step backward and two steps forward” when the situation so demands? Remember Deng Xiaoping’s prescription once China started interacting with the world of foreign “barbarians” from its claustrophobic Forbidden City: “Hide your intent and bide your time”? Secretiveness is in the DNA of Chinese diplomacy. That is what needs to be effectively countered by India today.
The inflexibly bellicose Han dictator must be tackled upfront. As China now faces a robust pushback from the West and East on trade, import, export and military hotspots, out of sheer exasperation Xi Jinping was forced to quote Nehru’s 1954 “Panchsheel” (Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence) to influence the world, without of course giving Nehru due credit for coining those memorable words.
In India, two Chinese diplomats (the ambassador in Delhi and the consul-general in Kolkata) arrived in midst of the parliamentary election and straightway began a verbal charm-offensive to impress Indians and create a pro-China lobby. The idea was to put pressure on Indians -- to humble the enemy without a fight, through internal sabotage. The Chinese take their cue from India’s history, where battles were lost to foreigners, with internal lobbyists ensuring victory for external foes.
One need not go into the myriad ways in which China has inflicted damage on India. The question is how India should re-orient its entire policy spectrum in order to counter-balance Han aggression. The Hans’ psyche solely revolves around the Opium War (1839-1842) and subsequent events like the burning of Royal Summer Palace (1860), Boxer Revolt (1898), and suppression by the “barbarians” (foreigners) of the “Son of Heaven” (Emperor) living in the opulent Forbidden City of Beijing.
This “revenge factor” is deeply embedded in the psyche of 1.5 billion Chinese people. Let India not be bullied or get carried away by false hopes from outside and internal pressures mounted by China’s lobbyists for their own private agenda, which may not necessarily benefit the 1.4 billion Indians.
Therefore, first insist on going back to India’s territorial status quo ante of April-May 2020. This is absolutely non-negotiable. Inviolability and sovereignty of territory comes first and foremost for any nation-state. It’s good that India’s external affairs minister, at least, has been publicly harping on this for quite some time. Despite the parrot-like utterances of some of China’s “wolf-warrior” diplomats, there can be no “business as usual” without a proper territorial resolution. Beijing is circulating a false narrative that “India and China have more convergence than divergence”. This is nothing more than a backdoor device to open the gates for hordes of Chinese people to enter India for "business", which will only benefit Beijing. New Delhi must not fall into this trap, otherwise the leaders of today will face the harsh judgment of history, even worse than Nehru in 1962.
India-China bilateral trade is in shambles. The $100 billion-plus deficit can’t be wished away with a magic wand. The options are limited, and some hard decisions are needed. It’s time to take action to prohibit through the commerce ministry the import of all non-essential goods from the Chinese, on which India’s traders are making humongous profits by selling in the domestic market at steep markups. Second, impose stiff tariffs on all Chinese imports. Then, impose non-tariff barriers as well.
The WTO today is hardly in a position to deal with disputes between the “big boys”. The United States imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. The European Union followed, with a maximum 38.4 per cent import duty. The entire West is trying to protect their domestic industry from brutal Chinese assault through cheap products. Let India recognise the harsh reality that the days of rampant globalization may be past. The monopoly-like Chinese juggernaut has taken on the entire West, and India is bound to be Dragon’s next target.
The global pushback Beijing is facing is bad news for its economy. India must keep watch on the fast-unfolding scenario. Unfortunately, it has let itself become excessively dependent on cheap Chinese products and raw material. It's now heard that some Indian companies may “collapse” without “imported Chinese managers” running them. Truly bizarre! Have some people, in their over-enthusiasm to make money through any means, lost their mind? Can India be (mis)-guided by them?
It’s time for South Block to crack the whip and ensure that the tentacles of the Chinese Dragon don’t spread any further in this country. Just consider some facts. In a reply to a Parliament question in December 2022, the government had acknowledged that “nearly 3,560 companies in India have Chinese directors” and that “174 Chinese companies are registered in India”. These need to be kept under close watch and acted upon, to ensure that India’s self-interest is not compromised in any way.
