The open and aggressive support to the policy of demonetisat-ion by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar does not signal a realignment of political forces in Bihar. At the most, this could be perceived as an effort on his behalf to fill the void Indian politics is facing at the national level — the absence of a popular leader with a clean image. The discourse on demonetisation has moved in a direction where asking any question on the note ban is seen as an act of supporting corruption. The question is: What’s the reason behind
Mr Kumar’s newfound love for Narendra Modi?
Initially, Mr Kumar said: “Modi is riding a tiger which could damage his alliance, but there is great sentiment in favour of his move and we should respect that.” However, later he went on to praise demonetisation and termed it as a “saahasi kadam”, a move which will benefit the country in any situation. He went on to add: “I support demonetisation as I am convinced that it will help in the fight against black money.” In early December, he again expressed that “notebandi is a positive step which will lead to benefits. It will happen… black money is a big sin and festering wounds which must be eradicated. It is a positive beginning. Whenever there is an attack on corruption, I will support it”.
His aggressive support for the policy of demonetisation is guided more by “practical” political considerations. Various Opposition leaders may be popular in their own state like Mr Kumar is in Bihar, but it must be noticed that compared to many others, Mr Kumar has a clean image. He is an honest politician.
Till few years ago, in any discussion about who might lead a non-BJP, non-Congress or an imaginary “third front”, Mr Kumar was seen as a frontrunner. However, this was hijacked by Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. But Mr Kejriwal’s opposition to demonetisation has made him stand along with the so-called “dishonest” politicians.
The space of “honest politician” seems to have been vacated and Mr Kumar is leaving no stone unturned to occupy that space once again. With his popularity in Bihar, and the praiseworthy development work done during his tenure as chief minister, he seems well placed to capture this space.
The surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicate that Mr Kumar is enormously popular in Bihar. A majority of voters (50 per cent) believe that he is genuinely popular, while 34 per cent thinks he resorts to gimmicks.
When compared to other leaders of Bihar, namely Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mr Kumar stands far ahead of them in popularity with a 60 per cent rating, while the rating for Lalu Prasad Yadav is at 26 and for Ram Vilas Paswan at six per cent. Not only does
Mr Kumar seem to be popular, the people of Bihar even praise him for running a somewhat clean and honest government. In varying degrees, 79 per cent of voters in Bihar felt satisfied with his last five years of rule when the survey was conducted before the 2015 Assembly elections.
Rarely is the work of a state government having completed five years of rule rated so high by the voters at large. With his personal image, exceptionally high rating of his performance as chief minister, he seems to be well placed to emerge as a national alternative to Narendra Modi.
Politics is more about image than actual work. An image of an honest politician, an image of commitment to fight corruption is a big asset for any political leader in India. After all, this explains the dramatic rise of Mr Kejriwal in Indian politics. It was his image of an honest politician and his commitment to fight corruption that compelled Delhiites to people vote for him.
In the past V.P. Singh, who had been a minister in Rajiv Gandhi’s Cabinet, went on to become India’s Prime Minister only after he led the crusade against corruption in the Bofors defence deal.
With people generally seems to be in support of the policy of demonetisation, since they believe it will solve the problem of black money,
Mr Kumar’s commitment to fight black money may also help him in cultivating a core support base for the JD(U) in Bihar.
While all other parties do have a core base in the state, the JD(U) does not seem to have any core support base. The RJD has a support base amongst the Yadavs and Muslims, the upper castes are sharply polarised in favour of the BJP, dalits in favour of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party. The JD(U) does have a strong support base amongst the Kurmis, the dominant OBC caste, but are numerically very small. Kurmis are unable to make a significant impact on electoral outcomes. Mr Kumar’s support for an issue which concerns people cutting across caste, community and class lines may provide an opportunity for him to cultivate a core support base.
But by extending support to the policy of demonetisation, Mr Kumar seems to have moved even in the direction of having a Plan B. There have not been any major friction between the alliance partners JD(U) and RJD, but one would agree there have been some hiccups. One is not sure how long this uneasy marriage between the two parties might last.
The JD(U) for a very long time has been in power in Bihar with the BJP as its ally. With standing on Mr Modi’s side, Mr Kumar may have been able to keep the option open for BJP support to his government in case a need arises in an event of a breakup of the alliance with the RJD. One can’t deny this possibility as well. After all, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
