Sanjaya Baru | Don’t look Westward: The Sun still rises in the East

Maybe one could dismiss it away as Kant cant. But the followers on the social media of India’s G-20 sherpa, Amitabh Kant, were not so generous. Many reacted derisively to Mr Kant’s supercilious tweet: “I have travelled to Europe a few times recently. In my view the Indian airports are far bigger and better, our road network is far more widespread with quality roads, our airlines deliver far better and more efficient service at lower price points and now Indian trains (Vande Bharat) will give us top class quality and connect India through its length and breadth.” I recall that when New Delhi got its new airport terminal over a decade ago, many who flew Delhi-Frankfurt-New York (JFK or La Gaurdia) made that kind of comparison. Even today, the Delhi and Hyderabad airports outshine Frankfurt and JFK.

It’s true that Europe has many rundown airports and many European cities have depressed neighbourhoods. It’s also true that India has a few bright and shining airports and a few swank neighbourhoods. But one must not make much of a muchness about Indian infrastructure in general being superior to European. Not surprisingly, few of Mr Kant’s followers on X (formerly Twitter) were willing to endorse his hyperbole. We still have some way to go and I am sure the young Mr Kant will still be around to see that happy day.

Whenever westward travelling Indians made the Kant kind of comparison between India’s new infrastructure and Europe’s old, I would always encourage them to look East. Travel to airports and drive on roads in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, China, I would say to them, not to mention Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, to make the inter-country comparison that we ought to.

On any parameter of development, from school education, women’s health and sanitation to manufacturing capability and infrastructure development, the Asia to our East has marched well ahead of India over the past half century. Over the past couple of decades, India has been bridging the gap and will continue to do so, but the relevant comparison for India to make is with East and Southeast Asia. Not Europe.

The Sun still rises in the East.

At a time when Europe is in the midst of a regional conflict and the Mediterranean is catching fire, the Asia to India’s East remains relatively calm and stable. At the recently concluded annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the economic data presented show that apart from the United States, most of the economies performing well this year, 2023, and expected to perform reasonably well next year, are to India’s East. China is slowing down, but with growth expected to be 5.0 per cent this year, it remains way ahead of the Euro Area’s 0.7 per cent. Japan, the world’s third largest economy, is bouncing back with output growth expected to be 2.0 per cent. India is catching up with its eastern neighbours, logging an average of around 6.0 per cent growth in the medium term.

Besides year-on-year growth, what sets the Asia to India’s east apart is the quality of education, healthcare, urban infrastructure and manufacturing output. Each time I travel eastwards I return impressed not just by the physical indicators of development, roads and airports, but by the healthy and happy look on the faces of young children as they pour out of well-provided schools. The optimism of young people is palpable.

The Indian post-colonial obsession with Europe makes many continue to compare oneself with the West, but it is the East that has set the standards of knowledge-based development over the past half century. It is not just the developed East -- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore -- but also the developing East -- China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam -- that offer lessons in modernisation and development. It is perhaps for this reason that the far-sighted Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao launched in 1992 what has been called a “Look East Policy” and Prime Minister Narendra Modi followed it up with an “Act East Policy”.

At the end of a meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi in April 2005, and having concluded his official business, Japan’s Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi surprised Dr Singh with a question. India is in the middle of Asia, Mr Koizumi said to Dr Singh, there is to your East a “Rising Asia” and there is to your West an “Unstable Asia”. In which direction will India move? In 2005, it was an extremely pertinent question to ask.

India was still beginning to record phenomenal growth rates, over 8.0 per cent per year during Dr Singh’s first term in office, in a political framework of inclusive and liberal democracy. Dr Singh assured Mr Koizumi that India “looks East” and that a Rising India would be part of a Rising Asia.

In Mr Koizumi’s view, it seemed, the Asia to India’s East had resolved many issues and was focused on economic and social development. While the Asia to India’s West was still battling the ghosts of a medieval era. The recent events in West Asia once again draw attention to the instability that has long characterised the region. While many worry that China may do to Taiwan what Russia did in Ukraine, I would discount such concerns for the simple reason that China, as much as its neighbours, remains focused on development. East and Southeast Asia will not risk conflict that will disrupt development. Europe can stew in its juice.

In recent years I have often reflected on the Koizumi question. Are we still on course to be a part of Rising Asia, or are we likely to be part of an “Unstable Asia”? As I travel within India, between the North and the South, and as one looks at news from the Hindi-speaking region and the South, this question constantly presents itself. The honest answer to the Koizumi question seems to be that South India is now certainly a part of “Rising Asia”. The India between the metropolitan expanse of New Delhi and the Vindhyas is yet to join that journey. My advice to young Indians for a long time has been: Travel East to See the Future.