If the reports after the first phase of polling are to be believed, it boils down to one finding that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not just an asset but sometimes a liability too.
The omissions and commissions of the Modi government are coming home to roost after ten long years, notwithstanding claims that he has turned India into a land of milk and honey.
This is not to say that the BJP is down in the dumps but that its slogan “ab ki baar, 400 paar” is just propaganda. Lal Krishna Advani, who was recently awarded the Bharat Ratna, famously said his prominent disciple is just an event manager par excellence. Nothing more, nothing less.
The failure to have a “big idea” is pulling down the BJP rhetoric. In 2014, the alleged misgovernance of UPA rule was well exploited by Mr Modi to project himself as the saviour. In 2019, the Pulwama incident and the Balakot airstrike put all other issues under the carpet for a better show by the BJP. It was shown as performance.
Now, the promise of a “Viksit Bharat” is not only proving a dud but also helping the Opposition to highlight the “failure of governance” over the past decade.
What has hit the BJP unexpectedly is the belief that “the Leader can do no wrong”. The controversial Agniveer scheme is turning a section of the powerful Jats against the ruling party in Rajasthan, given that the youth from the martial community are among the largest who join the Army.
Despite the government being able to put a lid on the publication of a book by former Army Chief Gen. M.M. Naravane, which has not spoken glowingly about the controversial scheme, a section of the Jats are angry.
In western Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is facing anger among the Rajputs for not fielding anyone from the community in several seats. This was the last thing the ruling party could have bargained for given the fact that its new chief minister in the state is a Thakur and is a known poster boy of Hindutva.
Mr Modi is increasingly looking jaded. He has nothing new to say and harps constantly on the polarisation theme, feeling that it alone could deliver him a third term. As a commentator put it: the PM’s recent remarks on Dr Manmohan Singh and Muslims are revealing of the BJP’s “back-to-basics” strategy. His biting attacks on his opponents, including Rahul Gandhi, are becoming more and more personal.
The Election Commission too has inadvertently added to the woes of the BJP. The long poll schedule was unveiled to help Mr Modi campaign at leisure in different areas, much to the discomfiture of the Opposition, but is now becoming a drag for want of issues.
TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee has made “maach” a big issue in fish-loving West Bengal after Mr Modi’s attack on an Opposition leader for allegedly eating non-vegetarian food on an auspicious day.
A battery of Opposition leaders, including Tejashwi Yadav and Uddhav Thackeray as well as veteran Sharad Pawar, have been their combative best and have sought to take the battle to BJP territory.
Right or wrong, the two yatras have given Rahul Gandhi a lot of confidence and he can hardly be shaken off by the Modi diatribes. It is helping the Congress leader to realise he is on the right path and making the correct noises and that the “strong leader” is shaken. The detractors of Rahul, who dismiss him as a “Amul baby”, may be in for a shock.
The AAP is shrewdly exploiting the arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal to make the BJP nervous. With the AAP valiantly fighting the battle, it is helping the Opposition in general at a critical time. It has turned into a major issue, with some Western countries too raising questions.
Mr Kejriwal, earlier dubbed by detractors as “Chhota Modi”, has turned the crisis into an opportunity by silently projecting his wife Sunita as the number two in the party and his natural heir. Even some BJP faithful feel the Delhi CM has been almost gifted a third term in office by seeking to make him a martyr. Assembly polls in Delhi are due in January 2025.
Paradoxically, the issue of dynasties is becoming a matter for the BJP to contend in states like Karnataka. In the middle of the elections, a section of leaders known as B.S. Yediyurappa’s baiters are attacking the party leadership for promoting family rule by making his son state party chief.
In Maharashtra, the BJP and allies failing to resolve the vexed issue of seat-sharing despite the first poll phase being over tells its own story. The moves by Mr Modi and home minister Amit Shah to marginalise or sideline the allies during the seat allocation are leading to complications.
“Don’t be under the impression that there is a wave”, is the refrain of some BJP leaders from diverse states. It goes counter to the ruling party’s boast “Modi hai to mumkin hain”. The BJP’s projections that the South is emerging as its new El Dorado must be taken with more than a pinch of salt. Pinarayi Vijayan’s growing attacks on Rahul Gandhi show that the UDF could again be in a commanding position in Kerala, much to the embarrassment of the Left. The Marxist CM and Mr Modi have become strange bedfellows on the issue of Rahul bashing.
Elon Musk postponing his much-hyped meeting with the Prime Minister at the last minute speaks volumes of Mr Modi’s projection as a powerful brand in the global arena suddenly being punctured amidst the elections. Mr Musk wouldn’t have dared to do so if he hadn’t thought of keeping away from a leader who is a lame duck till June 4. It also silently signals that the INDIA bloc is not such a dud as is being made out by Mr Modi and his bhakts,
The growing desperation of the PM indicates he fears that he could be in for “Ab ki baar, 2004”, when Atal Behari Vajpayee suddenly lost power even though the BJP was proclaiming from the rooftops “Who against Atal?”
A redeeming feature for the BJP is the way the Modi-Shah duo go the extra mile when facing a crisis. It depends upon the Opposition how it would go about the advantage provided by the PM through his tirades. In the remaining rounds of voting, both sides need to devise their strategy minutely to change the game in their favour.
