Having witnessed at least five elections in J&K plus the panchayat polls of 2011, I find myself reasonably qualified to comment on the ways elections have to be secured in conflict zones. Jammu and Kashmir is actually no longer a conflict zone of the classic kind, where violence can take place for the asking, the streets are aflame with angry young men, terrorists have a field day striking at will at targets of choice and the security forces have to continuously monitor activities, especially movement along roads, tracks, jungles or elsewhere.
Yet every few months, a terrorist strike or a set of coordinated strikes by elusive terrorists, who have yet to suffer any casualties, ends up with people questioning what the reality of Jammu and Kashmir really is. There is also immense restiveness about the casualty figures, both of civilians and of soldiers, with observations by a rabble-rousing media that the only way to resolve this is by retaliatory strikes on the sponsors of terror in Pakistan. It is often said that if Israel has no qualms about taking the battle directly to the adversary, then why should India hold back.
All relevant questions, but they remain just that -- questions. The answers are not difficult, provided people are willing to be rational and even-handed in their understanding about the compulsions of the Indian security establishment. There are two aspects about Israel which are not applicable to our situation. First, it functions and exists entirely under the shadow of the United States, being its primary frontline state in the Middle East. The US overlooks almost everything that Israel does in terms of operations against terrorist elements, which invariably has heavy collateral; witness the situation in the Gaza Strip today. It metes out treatment to the population with little consideration for human rights and a complete disdain for following any of the rules which demand humanitarian considerations. Second, Israel with evident asymmetry in its favour, may respond to a terrorist action on its soil by an over the top and out of proportion hit against a target with full knowledge that it will not draw a counter response of similar intensity. Even Iran’s response is usually comparatively muted. Contrast that with our situation, where the intent of the layered Deep State in Pakistan is mainly to make statements of capability through terrorist actions and instigate such turbulence as to ensure J&K does not stabilise. The Government of India is right in its assumption that it needs to remain circumspect and on course to full normalisation in Jammu and Kashmir by providing a combination of a secure environment and rapid paced development; only responding when a strategic threshold is crossed. To discuss or even attempt to link a threshold to numbers, casualties and situations would be virtual sacrilege, and the last thing the Government of India needs is public pressure to do something which won’t fetch strategic dividends or only contribute towards dissipating our national aim vis a vis J&K.
It’s not as if India will sit back and accept being targeted by Pakistan- sponsored terror groups. However, its challenge lies in the fact that identifying suitable targets that hurt the adversary without escalation into a conventional war scenario is fairly difficult. Even if India is fully proficient in response and accepts the consequences of escalation, there is never a guarantee of a short, sharp conflict which will put an end to Pakistan’s strategic intransigence. The matter is far too complex for public consumption and it’s actually a “war gamer’s” delight. It’s far more important that we move towards the next big event, the Assembly elections. In that we must ensure we give a most honest and transparent electoral exercise to the Union territory and do it with full security to enable every citizen to vote fearlessly.
It's not just the presence of the security forces in large numbers, what is needed is to eschew any feasibility of slippages in the security grid. That means that units and sub-units of all forces must remain fully sensitized to the scenarios which could present themselves. We cannot afford the movement of personalities, resources or personnel without adequate protection. The responsibility for slippages has to be pinpointed and necessary action taken.
The Sri Amarnath Ji Yatra (SANJY) is just about getting underway. It potentially offers the largest target for anti-national elements and over a sustained period of time. The J&K government knows how to secure it, but primarily in very conventional ways. What the Deep State across the border would be observing is the potential of the yatra, long a potential target, for something out of proportion. I recall 1999, the most happening yatra, with the backdrop of the then ongoing Kargil war. Securing the SANJY needs to be done in wargame mode, to identify potential loopholes and plug them. Much of this was done in 1999, the findings probably consigned to strong rooms full of archives. SANJY is not a routine event which can be secured by a transactional approach; it needs an all-agency approach which the security set-up of J&K seems to be adopting.
It is suspected that 25-30 terrorists are currently roaming the Pir Panjal tracts in small groups, mostly avoiding contact but awaiting a chance to strike when feasible. Their beat can be both sides of the Pir Panjal and with attempts to keep the security forces’ focus rooted to this belt. That is often done through small-scale strikes while a bigger one is planned and the opportunity awaited elsewhere. We cannot bank on zero infiltration in the Valley and infiltration in the Jammu region is presumed to be feasible at any time. Thus, from Jammu to the holy cave, the multiple routes on which the “yatris” move, have to be secured in reasonable depth. That depth would also mean coverage of the Warwan Valley, and northwards in the valleys leading from Kishtwar to Kargil.
A secure and eventless yatra would be indicative of capability to ward off threats to the Assembly elections. The complete attention of the Central agencies would need to be focused on Kashmir, the Jammu region and North Punjab because they form a continuum of support networks for the management of physical and human resources. Narcotics, weapons and cash, including fake currency, will need to be worked upon. With all this in place, a safe and successful J&K Assembly election should be possible and is to be hoped for.
