K.C. Singh | After 2022’s big challenges, looking at 2023 with hope

The year that is about to end saw multiple global challenges. If 2001 was the year of terrorism, 2008 that of the global financial crisis, the year gone by brought war in Ukraine, since February 24, which involved most permanent members of the UN Security Council. It saw the Covid-19 epidemic abate and now turn vengefully on its source, the People’s Republic of China. Multiple weather events swirled, signalling a climate change crisis. Finally, global inflation erupted, impacting the domestic politics of many nations.

The Economist magazine surmised that “in much of the world, liberal values are embattled”. Although US President Donald Trump lost office in 2020 his shadow lingered perilously until the 2022 US mid-term elections, when many candidates he had endorsed lost. The Democrats unexpectedly retained control of the US Senate while narrowly losing the House of Representatives. US President Joe Biden dodged being turned into a lame duck halfway through his four-year term. In Brazil, Latin America’s largest democracy, the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro by socialist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was also a win for environmentalists. The new President rolled back his predecessor’s policies that had ravaged the Amazon rainforest. However, in Europe, right-wing parties’ successes continued. Giorgia Meloni of the Brothers of Italy party won power.

In Asia, the picture is even more muddled. Iran’s mass protests over the forcible enforcement of women’s head coverings were inflamed by the death-in-detention of Mansa Amini. The Iranian regime exacerbated violence against the protesters, including public hangings of alleged lawbreakers. That froze the revival of the nuclear deal and withdrawal of sanctions against Iran. Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan tightened his autocratic rule. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu’s return at the head of a more blatantly right-wing coalition endangered normalcy in West Asia or even continuing good relations with Arab neighbours. Indonesia, the biggest democracy amongst Islamic nations, passed an illiberal criminal code. In Japan, the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cost India a close friend who had envisioned the four-nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

The churn has been more drastic in India’s neighbourhood. In Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan, ruling since 2018, was ousted when his patrons in Pakistan’s military turned against him. This followed defections due to high inflation, economic and financial mismanagement. His successor, Shehbaz Sharif, assumed power on April 11, only to face mass flooding months later. Nearly one-third of the country was under water, affecting over 30 million people. Imran Khan’s rabble rousing kept his mass appeal intact, enabling his party to win most byelections. A new Army chief was eventually appointed.

US-Pak relations thawed after the killing of Al Qaeda head Zayman Al-Zawahiri in a drone attack in Afghanistan, possibly with Pakistani collaboration. Pakistan got relief when removed from the “grey list” of the Financial Action Task Force. With its external debt of $250 billion, it hovers close to economic meltdown. National elections are due in late 2023. The ruling combine of the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) will face a resurgent Imran Khan targeting the Army as indeed its two opponents.

India-Pakistan relations remained frozen. Pakistan seeks restoration of status quo ante in Jammu and Kashmir and India demands an end to state-sponsored terrorism. Whatever Pakistan’s election’s outcome, with India’s Lok Sabha elections months later, any serious re-engagement will have to wait.

Sri Lanka has still not emerged fully from the economic collapse and political instability that caused mass protests in March. The 22nd Constitution Amendment passed on October 21 tries to reduce presidential powers, institute anti-corruption safeguards and ensure independence of judiciary. A Constitutional Council has been established to appoint the heads of independent commissions. But devolution of power to Tamils and balancing of relations with India and China are still a mirage.

Nepal’s election has produced a surprise outcome. The Nepali Congress led by former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, traditionally closer to India, won the largest number of seats But his pre-election ally Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), also known as “Prachanda”, joined his erstwhile rival Kharga Prasad Oli to become Prime Minister. It is his third stint in office since the monarchy’s abolition 14 years ago. Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi quickly felicitated Prachanda, the Chinese ambassador beat him to it. Some rebalancing of Nepalese foreign policy in favour of China appears inevitable.

Finally, the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping at the Communist Party’s four-yearly congress and assumption of an unprecedented third term post-Deng Xiaoping. It presents the world and India the most significant challenge. Some softening of Chinese stance towards the US and Europe may be a tactical repositioning by China realising that its aggressive military posturing and domineering economic footfall are eliciting counter-measures. India is seen as a strategic distraction and not as an equal. The US is counted as its real rival, which it wants to match, even excel. The latest intrusion by a 300-strong PLA force in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh shows a brazenness to gradually alter the status quo at the Line of Actual Control, even in settled areas. The Galwan Valley skirmish occurred when India faced the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020. Ironically, now the intrusion occurs when China is reeling under a health crisis due to withdrawal of the “Zero Covid” policy. Having blocked herd-immunity development in its population by draconian lockdowns, the surge will cause extensive deaths. Autocratic regimes seek distractions abroad, via controlled military adventures, when a domestic crisis brews.

Thus in 2022, multiple themes converged, destabilising governments, boosting the rise of populist-nationalist leaders and exacerbating inter-state tensions. It remains to be seen whether Covid-19 is in its last throes or able to dangerously mutate. The recent snowstorms in the United States and earlier Hurricane Ian, floods in Pakistan and premature heat affecting India’s wheat crop are signals that climate change is already occurring. The Ukraine war caused energy and food crises, and are compelling a return to coal and fossil fuels. Are the world leaders wiser after a challenging year? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz advocates “Zeitenwende” — a turning point to reduce dependence on Russian energy. An experimental fusion reactor has shown some success, perhaps laying the path to energy revolution and decarbonisation of the global economy. When and how the Ukraine war ends will determine the sustainability of the idea of liberal democracy and the harnessing of climate change. Alexander Pope’s line — “hope springs eternal in the human breast” — is the talisman as 2023 approaches.