The forecast for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, till it was actually called, was it would be a triumph for the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party. In his last speech at the concluding session of the 17th Lok Sabha, the Prime Minister predicted that his side would win 370 seats and with the allies the total would top 400 seats out of the total 543 seats.
Obviously, the machinery of the BJP and the resources available to the Modi government anticipated a wave of support that would top the 2019 one. It became apparent by the first phase on April 19 that there was no wave. After the second phase of the mega seven-phase election and votes cast in 190 constituencies, the drop in turnout clearly indicates voter disenchantment. That is bad news for the ruling party, according to conventional wisdom. It is also bad news for the collective Opposition that is contesting against the BJP, in alliances and seat adjustments in some states, separately in others.
When voters don’t feel inclined to take the trouble in the searing heat to queue up to press the EVM button, it reflects low expectations from the political establishment, as well as dissatisfaction with the political leadership of the ruling party. The low voter turnout in the second phase, 66.7 per cent, according to the Election Commission’s numbers, which indicates a drop of just over three per cent, implies that there is, similarly, no great enthusiasm for the organised anti-BJP Opposition under the Indian National Inclusive Developmental Alliance either.
After 10 years of jobless growth, rising inflation and a tangible drop in the quality of life of the overwhelming majority of Indians, the lower voter turnout, significantly in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala and West Bengal, indicates that voters are feeling let down. Estimates point to a 9.41 per cent drop in voter turnout in Madhya Pradesh, a 6.9 per cent drop in Uttar Pradesh, a 6.8 per cent drop in Kerala and a 4.5 per cent drop in West Bengal.
This is anti-incumbency.
The 4.5 per cent drop in voter turnout in the first phase was a signal that the BJP read as requiring a rev up; its message between the two phases was so obviously an exercise in rousing “Hindus” by raising the “Muslim” flag, by falsifying the content in the Congress manifesto and ranting about confiscating “mangalsutras” to redistribute to Muslims that it is reasonable to draw the inference the party was shaken by what it perceived as a decline of support in its core base. The Congress hit back by lodging a complaint against Narendra Modi’s Banswara “hate speech” but that has not halted the flow of malign misinterpretations.
The narrative has acquired more layers on how the Congress Party will introduce “inheritance tax”, by talking non-st p on how wealth will be snatched by the Congress if it comes to power. Mr Modi and the BJP are inadvertently revealing who they think may be disenchanted voters. For 80 crore Indians subsisting on the 5 kg of free foodgrains, there is no surplus and no wealth that could possibly attract an inheritance tax. The gold and the “mangalsutras” indicate a level of consumption that would put such voters in the broad category of the middle class.
Not pundits and no pollster can pinpoint the reasons why voters have chosen to opt out of making a choice. The changes in the speeches of the BJP leadership, however, point to voters who have been a core support base for the party: the traders, the salaried middle class, those with assets and incomes and wealth to lose, exactly the category of voters who should have been electrified by the dazzle, albeit in the distant future, of “Viksit Bharat” by 2047.
The continuing trend of lower voter turnout indicates that the magic of Hindutva is not as powerful as some felt; in fact, it can be interpreted as a malignancy on India’s body politic that is putting off voters. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies survey before the election revealed that 79 per cent Indians were not enchanted by visions of Hindu Rashtra; on the contrary the 79 per cent felt the country was for people from all religious communities.
The absence of a “Modi wave” and the drop in voter turnout does not automatically point to a pro-Opposition or pro-Congress wave. There is no wave at all. The Opposition needs a boost to succeed in its mission of bringing down the Narendra Modi government and defeating the BJP. How the Congress and the Opposition raise voter enthusiasm will unfold over the remaining five phases of the election.
The problem is with capabilities and the efficiency of organisations; the BJP has it; the Congress does not. Regional and smaller parties come in between; these parties have competence in getting out the vote even if the organisations appear to be shambolic. No matter how good regional parties are in mobilising their voters, the 2024 election is not about parochial issues. Regardless of Mr Modi and the BJP campaign team’s efforts to turn the Lok Sabha election into a “us” versus “them” contest in Opposition-ruled states by focusing on mismanagement by governments, corruption, appeasement, infiltration and vote banks, the voter is fully aware that the choice they have to make is about Mr Modi continuing as Prime Minister.
Since 2014, all elections, state, municipal, panchayat and Lok Sabha included, have been about Mr Modi and the narrative he wove to appeal to the majority defined by its religious identity on the one hand, and against the other side defined by a different kind of identity, that is family or “parivar vaad”. The multilayered meanings of “parivar vaad” have been useful in transforming the Opposition into anti-nationals and Hindu haters by equating political legacy with promoting self-interest.
The mandate the voter will deliver will be about Mr Modi as the only alternative; the lack of enthusiasm therefore puts the partners of the INDIA bloc, especially in Opposition-ruled states, and the Congress under increasing pressure to mobilise support and ensure voters actually turn up at the polling stations. As the BJP works to consolidate its vote banks, its narrative is likely to pivot to match the expectations of specific sections of voters. The Opposition has a choice: to pursue its own agenda or get distracted by the BJP’s infinite capacity to make noise.
