Sunanda K. Datta-Ray | India-China peace vital for Brics to acquire global role

The first in-person Brics summit since 2019 may have been something of a defining moment for an organisation that has often seemed to be even more nebulous than the nonaligned movement. India’s bilateral gain of an assurance of “expeditious disengagement and de-escalation” in the Galwan Valley of eastern Ladakh has yet to be proved. But to China’s glee, Goldman Sachs, whose then chief economist, Jim O’Neill, invented the “Bric” acronym in 2001, may now have to coin a more inclusive term.

O’Neill’s creation signifying the four initial members -- Brazil, Russia,

India and China -- became “Brics” when South Africa’s admission in 2010 added “S” to “Bric”. If Goldman wasn’t going through a troubled patch, it might have found a new acronym to include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, whose applications to join (out of some 20) that were accepted at the 15th summit in Johannesburg. As India tries to retain its influence, China -- with a stuttering economy, devastating floods, symptoms of youth disenchantment and property companies in distress -- crowed over the bonus of new friends and proteges.

While the revamped Brics may stridently demand a say in international decisions and in distributing global revenues, the fond desi belief is that the three-day event was another global jamboree especially convened to honour India, its Prime Minister and ruling party. Actually, the conference had to be rescued from one unforeseen development after another that overwhelmed the world’s attention.

First, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin dared not attend at all. Had he done so, the host country, South Africa, as a member of the International Criminal Court, would have had to arrest him which would have embarrassed everyone present even if it pleased Ukraine’s heroically beleaguered President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his (also absent) Western backers. Second, the Russian mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who recently mutinied against Mr Putin but whose Wagner armed group was supposed to be restoring order in Africa, was killed when his Embraer-135 aircraft crashed while flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg, killing everyone on board, no doubt to the Kremlin’s great relief.

The wonder, as a British observer commented, was not that Prigozhin was killed but that he survived so long.

Third, China’s President Xi Jinping set tongues wagging by not turning up at the summit’s opening business forum. Speculation was not quietened when a Beijing official sidestepped a reporter’s question, saying only that Mr Xi’s speech had been delivered. He meant that China’s commerce minister Wang Wentao read out a speech purporting to be by Mr Xi and (surprise! surprise!) attacking the United States, saying that “some country, obsessed with maintaining its hegemony, has gone out of its way to cripple the emerging and developing countries”. While delegates wondered if Mr Xi had been overthrown, the man himself appeared on the second day, suave as ever and pitching for more political and security cooperation within Brics. Middle Kingdom history buffs recalled that between 1881 and 1883, the formidable all-powerful Dowager Empress Cixi resorted to only written communications with her ministers.

Fourth, instead of rushing to the rescue with a low-key appearance to restore confidence in Brics as the focus of global attention, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stole its thunder when the Chandrayaan-3 made history by landing near the Moon’s south pole. Upstaged, Mr Xi warned that “the Cold War mentality is still haunting our world, and the geopolitical situation is getting tense”. The solution lay in enlarging Brics. “I am glad to see the growing enthusiasm of developing countries about participating in Brics cooperation. … we need to accelerate the expansion process to bring more countries into the Brics family.”

This was the first public interaction between the Indian and Chinese leaders since November 16, 2022, when they met briefly at a dinner hosted by Indonesian President Joko Widodo at the G-20 summit in Bali. Sitting on either side of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Johannesburg this time, they interacted for possibly a minute, before making their presentations and shaking hands. Apparently, they agreed in that twinkling of an eye to expedite a settlement of the Ladakh dispute that has been hanging fire for three years at least. However, China didn’t categorically confirm the agreement.

There was some concern in Johannesburg as to whether a revitalised Brics might ruffle American feathers at a time when President Joe Biden is trying to mobilise Asian allies into an anti-China front. Although Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, condescendingly dismissed the notion of Brics “evolving into some kind of geopolitical rival to the United States or anyone else”, Brazil and South Africa sought to avoid alienating their European and North American partners. Claiming that Iran’s inclusion didn’t mean any hostility to the West, South Africa’s representative, Anil Sooklal, told reporters that the times they are a-changing. “This is what Brics is saying, let’s be more inclusive. Brics is not anti-West”. Putting the best face that he could on an enlargement which India did not actively seek but could not oppose too vigorously either, Mr Modi concurred with the Indian-origin Mr Sooklal. The group’s expansion, he said, was “a message that all institutions in the world need to mould themselves according to changing times”.

The message was clear: Asia must walk an even more taut tightrope.

Backed by the powerful petrodollar, Saudi Arabia, Brics’ biggest West Asian trading partner, retains its independence despite cultivating China and serving American security interests. Egypt, too, has good relations with Russia, China and the US. Brazil’s mercurial President Lula da Silva, who faces yet another economic crisis and dwindling foreign reserves, was disappointed in his ambitious hopes of a Brics currency as an alternative trading unit to the US dollar but has already begun repaying some of his country’s loans in Chinese yuans. Iran, which holds the world’s second-largest gas reserves and 25 per cent of West Asia’s oil deposits, and sells discounted oil to China, applied to join Brics as part of its efforts to strengthen economic and political ties with non-Western powers and demonstrate that the West’s efforts to isolate it have failed. Another new entrant, the UAE, had already joined the Brics’ New Development Bank in June.

All this may be little more than smoke-and-mirror diplomacy. But if Mr Xi wants to really thumb his nose at Mr Biden, he will have to flesh out Mr Modi’s claim of a settlement in Ladakh and present the United States with the fait accompli of Asian solidarity.