The combination of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Communist Party (Maoist) has swept the recent parliamentary and provincial polls, and the two plan to merge soon. Such a sweeping Communist victory is an extraordinary development.
Communist parties coming to power through the ballot box in a country with a multi-party setup is quite unknown, and this does require that India reorient itself to dealing with a wholly Left government in the tiny Himalayan state, which has Maoist China as a gargantuan neighbour to its north.
In Nepal’s case, the two victorious parties have been in government with a bourgeois party, Nepali Congress, in the past but have now stormed the citadel on their own. It’s to be seen if a merged Communist entity chooses to launch itself on a revolutionary path or prefers to go in the direction of social democracy. Unlike CPN(UML), the Maoists had carried out a decade-long campaign of revolutionary violence against the erstwhile Nepal monarchy but subsequently mellowed to put its trust in Parliament.
The Communist front’s overwhelming victory certainly has the first ingredients of providing political stability to Nepal, which has been wholly absent for a decade, with a succession of Prime Ministers.
Perhaps stability will depend to a considerable degree on the way the CPN(UML) and Maoists are able to effect their merger. India has much experience in dealing with both, as well as with the defeated Nepali Congress, that used to be the country’s first party in a three-way race.
It’s important for New Delhi to convey to Kathmandu that it places a premium on political stability in Nepal. Thus reassured, Nepal’s new government is enabled to see merit in its continued deep-going ties with India. These frequently come under strain due to the China factor.
Of late, Beijing has sought to expand and deepen its stakes in Nepal by offering major infrastructure projects as well as prospecting for oil in the Nepal-Tibet border region. Unlike India, Nepal is on board with China’s OBOR programme.
China has also recently sought to sow the seeds of doubt and difficulty in India-Nepal relations. This is something New Delhi must be watchful about. About the time of the Doklam crisis last summer, which was the consequence of an undemarcated boundary between India, Bhutan and China in a specific area, Beijing had reportedly sought to provoke Kathmandu to try and open discussions with India on the tri-junction of Nepal and its two big neighbours at Lipulekh in Uttarakhand.
The CPN(UML) leader and Nepal’s new Prime Minister, K.P. Sharma Oli, is said to lean toward China. Maoist leader Pushp Kumar Dahal “Prachanda” may be disposed to be more even-handed between India and China. This is a time for cautious diplomatic management.
