The most significant aspect of the Tripura Assembly polls, which went off peacefully on Sunday, is the direct confrontation between the Left and Right. This hasn’t happened in the country earlier. And whatever the outcome, it is evident from news reports that the BJP is making a very determined effort to outflank the CPI(M), which has been in power for a quarter century.
Chief minister Manik Sarkar, who is practically seen as a fakir, has an unshakeable reputation for personal probity and for conducting a clean public life. However, his government suffers from long-term anti-incumbency.
Unemployment is running at over 25 per cent, and for lack of connectivity there seems little scope for employment outside the government. Mr Sarkar says the state has been systematically denied Central funds for infrastructure-building.
The main challenger of the CPI(M)-led Left Front has traditionally been the Congress, but in this election this party has been relegated to the periphery. Its supporters appear to have deserted it in favour of the BJP. Many just want to try something new and different. This seems to be the case with the young and first-time voters.
Many of them are swayed by the BJP’s promise of a free smartphone for the youth. Some accept the BJP’s line that if the saffron party comes to power, the state will get funds for development from the BJP-run Centre. Government staff are being wooed by the BJP with the promise of implementing the Seventh Pay Commission award, which the Manik Sarkar government found difficult to do due to the lack of funds.
Originally a tribal state, the population of Tripura is now mainly Bengali. A significant section of tribal inhabitants were with the Congress, and influence the electoral outcome in around one-third of the seats. The BJP is working hard in this area.
However, the contest is bound to be hard. The Left won 50 (CPI-M 49, CPI 1) of the 60 Assembly seats in 2013, and the Congress 10. On March 3, when the results are out, we will know in what manner this equation changes.
It’s clear, however, that the BJP is doing its best to announce its arrival in a big way in this northeastern state too. While in the other states of the region, the party’s emphasis is on money power, making promises on the basis of controlling the Centre, and relying on a tight organisational framework, in Tripura, in addition to these, ideology is said to be already playing a role.
Hindutva activists and those of the RSS organisational structure have been seeking to find favour with the Bengali and the tribal groups for quite some time now. The CPI(M) is being challenged by a new species of politics in Tripura.
