The fact that so many states are concerned this time is illustrative of not only the polarised political environment but also the reality of drastic changes that can come about from delimitation
The proximity to the Census, expected to begin in 2026, was bound to raise concerns over delimitation. The redrawing of Lok Sabha constituencies to achieve a better ratio of elected MPs to the number of people they represent will not come without heartaches. The fact that so many states are concerned this time is illustrative of not only the polarised political environment but also the reality of drastic changes that can come about from delimitation.
That the south is rising in unison now at the prospect of delimitation, last done in 1973 based on the 1971 Census when the seats were raised to the current 543 from 522 (based on 1961 Census), is indicative of how much can change after Census counts taken as far apart as 54 years in the world’s most populous nation.
Assuming population stays as the sole criterion and proportional representation in number of MPs is fixed by the 2026 Census, southern states as well as Bengal, Odisha, Punjab and smaller norther and northeastern states face a scary scenario in which their political presence will relatively dwindle in Parliament as opposed to the more populous states like UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan which stand to gain a number of seats in an expanded Lok Sabha.
A projection based on an assumed population of 140 crores or more in 2026 has it that while Tamil Nadu may gain three or four seats from its current 39, Uttar Pradesh may be electing as many as 140 MPs, substantially up from its current 80 and Bihar about 80 as compared to 40. Such calculations will be true of most of the Hindi-Hindu-Hindutva belt which, as is known, may prove beneficial only to the right leaning nationalist parties and their bigger rivals who will take a share of additional seats in a House of say 800 MPs.
Is it a matter of wonder then that the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu has taken the lead to drum up opposition to representation based on population and a need to freeze the current ratio based on the 1971 census? The presence of top state leaders from the Congress camp in the Chennai summit against planned delimitation is only an approximate indicator of the party’s stand as it can also end up as a big beneficiary in an expanded Parliament because it has a vote base beyond the south.
A consensual approach to the issue of delimitation, the biggest political hot potato of the time, is a dire necessity despite the polarisation. The confrontational approach will build up if the less populated southern states, which contribute 33 per cent to national GDP, are denied a fair hearing on what is a major reform. These issues have been hanging for a while without any response from the chief honchos of the ruling dispensation.
A delimitation exercise has the mandate of the Constitution, but the larger question is whether representation by population should continue to be the only criterion. Also, should not states which directly look after their people’s civic needs, education, healthcare, etc. be granted bigger legislatures so that its people are better represented by more MLAs?
The point is states are partners in a Union of States setup, and notwithstanding their political preferences they must be heard in a meeting of all stakeholders. They cannot be discriminated against in any new delimitation exercise. They should not suffer because they have been progressive in controlling the population growth for which they accept a smaller share of Central tax revenues in a proportion decided by the finance commission.
