Given the known reluctance of the new player, actor-turned-politician Vijay, to seek a pre-poll alliance with any party, the old allies may have no alternative but to get together again
A realignment of political forces in Tamil Nadu is on the cards with the AIADMK certain to be back in the NDA fold before the 2026 Assembly elections. That would not be surprising considering the BJP was in alliance with the AIADMK for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 Assembly elections, but that was only after the demise of J. Jayalalithaa who was a friend but not an ally of the BJP.
AIADMK chief Edappadi Palaniswami’s air-dashing to New Delhi during the Assembly session to meet the home minister Amit Shah had set off the alliance bells ringing again, regardless of the leader downplaying it on the grounds that it was too early as the polls are slated only for the summer of 2026.
Given the changed political environment after the DMK regained power in the 2021 polls, the AIADMK had been left rueing its alliance with the BJP as it believed its downfall was due to its association with the right leaning party that is perceived by the people to be a northern outfit from the Hindi belt.
Given the known reluctance of the new player, actor-turned-politician Vijay, to seek a pre-poll alliance with any party, the old allies may have no alternative but to get together again. Vijay, who is expected to be a live influence on the TN political scene with his fledgling TVK and its Dravidian leanings, seems determined to gauge how far his individual foray will take him.
It is now a question of when the formal AIADMK-BJP, or vice versa, tie-up will take place. The arithmetic of Tamil Nadu polls is somewhat simple. The DMK holds all the cards in any three-way or four-way contest with the split in votes favouring the party with a base populated by a dedicated cadre. The vote share of the parties in the Lok Sabha polls was: INDIA 46.97 per cent; AIADMK+ 23.05 per cent, NDA 18.28 per cent and Seeman’s NTK 8.2 per cent.
Much as the NDA could be shaken only by Opposition unity on the national scene as seen in the last Lok Sabha polls when BJP fell short of a majority of its own, the state Opposition parties can hope to put up a fight against the DMK only if they are united. Such a unity is more easily achieved with old allies finding a common platform again.
Mr Palaniswami’s frequent reference to the DMK being the sole enemy has been resonating with the BJP whose local chieftain has been given a reason to welcome it even if he may have sworn to build his party for an independent tilt at power in a state dominated by two major Dravidian parties that had common roots in the Dravidian movement before MGR walked out.
The AIADMK had broken the alliance in 2023 after Annamalai had spoken of corrupt Jaya regimes. The BJP has shown signs of wishing to rein in him so as not to spoil the prospects of an alliance. A combined onslaught on the DMK front alone may give the party founded by MGR and nurtured by Jaya a shot at power.
The alliance will also know that the DMK leader Stalin has had some salience injected into it after he championed causes in opposing BJP-NDA ruled Centre on delimitation and the new education policy and reignited the anti-Hindi sentiment that had catapulted the Dravidian party to power in 1967.
Considering the number of issues facing the state and its adversarial approach to the Centre, it might appear Tamil Nadu is from a different planet. A state, known for its grand Dravidian alliances, is up for grabs in 2026 and the manoeuvres are just beginning.
