Catalonia isn’t Kashmir. It isn’t East Pakistan or Myanmar’s Rakhine province either. It cannot complain of political repression, economic exploitation or religious discrimination. Yet, Catalan’s defiant provincial president, Carles Puigdemont, might announce independence any day now. Whatever happens, there is a warning in Spain’s latest crisis for all multinational, multi-ethnic, multi-religious states not to ignore either regional sentiments or the scope for judicious outside help.
Catalonia’s October 1 referendum, although constitutionally illegal according to Madrid, showed that many of the natives of this 32,108 sq km region of northeastern Spain, bordering France and the Pyrenees and washed by the Mediterranean, are convinced they are not Spanish. They want independence.
True, only 43 per cent of 7.5 million Catalans voted. That could be, however, because of the Madrid government’s measures to prevent the exercise. While a Spanish court declared the referendum illegal, attempts were made to seize ballot boxes and disperse voters, with the armed central police and paramilitary Guardia Civil injuring hundreds of people in an unprecedented burst of violence. Even so, 90 per cent of the 2.3 million who voted backed independence.
These separatists are not terrorists. They do not threaten Spain’s security. Neighbouring nations can’t be accused of having a mischievous finger in the pie. Spain’s national unity is pitted against a powerful subnationalism that recalls England’s lost battle in what is now the Republic of Ireland, and the struggles that may lie ahead in Scotland and Wales that are still part of the United Kingdom. Spain isn’t as much a state of many nations as India, but the Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, faces a daunting challenge in Catalonia.
It’s a question of identity backed by economic confidence. Catalonia has not fully recovered from the European financial crisis that sent unemployment soaring to 24 per cent but is still Spain’s richest and most economically dynamic region. It accounts for 16 per cent of Spain’s population, 19 per cent of the national gross domestic product, and 25.6 per cent of exports. Nearly 21 per cent of foreign investment goes to Catalonia, which draws workers from all over Spain. It is a major tourist destination. Barcelona, the capital, is one of Europe’s largest industrial metropolitan areas.
Mr Puigdemont originally planned to make an announcement in the Catalan parliament on Monday but in a pre-emptive move, Spain’s constitutional court suspended that particular parliamentary session. The speaker says the session has now been rescheduled for Tuesday.
Behind Catalan defiance lies centuries of feudal, dynastic and ideological warring and emotional estrangement, a failure of what Jawaharlal Nehru called “national integration”. Catalonia was never an independent state but was often part of kingdoms (like Aragon) or federations that were not under Madrid. Thus, during the 1702-14 War of the Spanish Succession, Catalonia supported the Austrian Habsburg candidate whereas a French Bourbon prince won the throne.
Having backed the Republicans during the 1936-39 Spanish Civil War, Catalonia was punished by General Francisco Franco’s dictatorship with a number of oppressive measures. The official use of the Catalan language was banned, and several Catalan institutions were abolished. The return of democracy (1975–1982) under King Juan Carlos — whose son King Felipe outraged Catalans last week by calling the referendum illegal and undemocratic on TV — enabled Catalonia to regain considerable local autonomy in political, educational, environmental and cultural affairs and also to achieve rapid economic growth.
Signs of a backlash are emerging as the crisis deepens, with more than 50,000 demonstrators from across the country rallying in Madrid to express support for Spanish unity. Thousands gathered in the capital’s Plaza de Colon over which flies the world’s largest Spanish flag, waving their own smaller red and yellow banners. They chanted slogans in favour of Spain and the constitution and repeatedly shouted “Long live the Guardia Civil” and “We’re proud of our police”. Both forces were strongly criticised for their brutal handling of the pro-independence referendum. Similar pro-unity demonstrations have now erupted in Barcelona too.
The increasing danger is that the competing authorities in Barcelona and Madrid could take steps that might aggravate the confrontation. If Barcelona has the option of making a unilateral declaration of independence, Madrid has the power to dissolve self-rule in Catalonia. Either measure would provoke a constitutional crisis.
Meanwhile, Mr Rajoy’s cabinet has issued a decree that in effect encourages business houses in Catalonia to relocate elsewhere. Several banks and public utility corporations are reported to have already done so. The Catalan chief of police, Josep Lluis Trapero, has had to appear before a judge in a national criminal court in Madrid charged with sedition.
Both sides may ultimately pull back from the brink. A Spanish government official has apologised for the referendum violence. Meanwhile, there are indications that instead of issuing a unilateral declaration of independence, Mr Puigdemont will deliver a report to the Catalan parliament about the political situation which sounds deliberately vague enough to leave room for manoeuvre.
But if the first lesson of the crisis is that no multicultural state can afford to ignore minority or regional sensitivities, the second is that the parties to a dispute should not shy away from well-meaning offers of outside help. Only governments that arrogantly refuse to make any concessions and are convinced their military might can solve all problems reject intervention.
Despite Mr Rajoy’s present refusal to countenance mediation, there should always be a role for Oslo’s peacemakers, whether in Sri Lanka or West Asia. The Northern Ireland stalemate wouldn’t have been solved without international players like President Bill Clinton, US Senator George Mitchell, and John de Chastelain, a Canadian general and diplomat. It can be the European Union this time.
