Alliances win states

While it is true that the way the nationalism debate has unfolded across the country, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to have gained popular support beyond the big cities, this is not likely to become a big election issue in the states that go to polls in April and May 2016. Assembly elections are more about voters’ concerns, about the issues of day-to-day necessities like electricity, road and drinking water. Issues like secularism, communalism or nationalism have very limited electoral appeal. People may extend huge support to such issues, but, while voting, the concerns are varied and issue of nationalism may be lower down the ladder.

The question of how the BJP might perform in these elections has become important, as these elections will be contested against the backdrop of the debate on the question of what constitutes nationalism. The debate is much more widespread than one might expect sitting in Delhi. It’s gone far beyond the TV studios, to the parks and streets of small towns and villages. While one gets a sense of increasing support for the BJP on this issue, one also gets a sense of some unease among a section of voters — mainly Muslims, secular Hindus, and other minorities, who may have some reservations about chanting “Bharat Mata ki Jai”. Three of the five states that go to polls have sizeable Muslim populations — Assam 34 per cent, West Bengal 27 per cent and Kerala 27 per cent. So the question is: Will the BJP be able to polarise the Hindu vote in its favour or will regional parties hog the limelight, reducing the BJP to being a marginal player in these Assembly elections

The BJP will certainly be the frontrunner in Assam, and may even form government on its own or in alliance with the regional parties, but it can hardly hope to improve upon its performance of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The BJP continued its winning spree of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections by forming governments in four of the six states where Assembly elections were held in 2014-15, but suffered defeat at the hands of regional parties in Delhi and Bihar.

In West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala also the regional regional parties are likely to push the BJP onto the back foot, ensuring the contest is between the regional parties.

The electoral contest in Tamil Nadu will be between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) along with their allies, though smaller regional forces are still trying to firm up their alliance. In neighbouring Kerala, though the BJP, with its alliance with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), is giving the impression that it will be able to break the old pattern of a bipolar contest between the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the election will remain between the UDF and the LDF led by the Congress and the Communist Party of India-Communist Party of India (Marxist), respectively, with various regional parties coming under one or the other political umbrella. At best the BJP may be able to increase its vote share in urban pockets, but it will still find it difficult to enter the Kerala Assembly.

In Puducherry, the national parties will try hard to defeat the regional party, All-India Namathu Rajyam Congress (AINRC), which has a strong foothold in the state. The BJP is likely to remain a fringe political player even in Puducherry.

The Congress and the Left Front led by the CPI(M), arch-rivals for decades, have been forced to enter into an understanding to pose a challenge to the might of the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress in West Bengal. The BJP, which performed well in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections by winning two Lok Sabha seats while polling 17 per cent votes, marched ahead of the Congress in terms of votes, but it is unlikely that the BJP will increase its vote share in the Assembly elections compared to its vote share in the Lok Sabha elections. The strong 27 per cent Muslim vote is likely to get divided between the Congress, Left and the Trinamul Congress. The voters in West Bengal have strong affiliations with parties that have deep roots in the state, so it is difficult to imagine that the BJP will be able to successfully break that support base on the issue of nationalism.

The only state where the BJP is expected to perform well is Assam, where one should not be surprised if it manages to form government. Though elections in Assam will be largely contested between the two national parties — the Congress and the BJP — both these parties have recognised the strength of the regional parties and have tried hard to bring them into their fold. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once the ruling party of Assam, may have lost political clout, but the BJP tried hard to forge an alliance after managing to ally with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), a regional front. The Congress tried hard to form an alliance or understanding with the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam to challenge the BJP.

The BJP made its electoral presence felt in Assam during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning seven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats and polling 36.5 per cent votes. And with illegal Muslim migrants already an issue in Assam, the BJP may be able to make electoral gains by invoking this issue more aggressively and successfully polarising the Hindu vote in its favour as Assam has a long history of parties making illegal Bangladeshi migrants an electoral issue to mobilise voters. But given the state’s sizeable Muslim population, the BJP cannot be sure if a pro-Hindu vote will be enough for them to win elections.

This has forced the BJP to try to even woo Muslim voters in Assam by trying to split them on the issue of language by playing the card of insider and outsider — Assamese speaking Muslims who are seen as natives of Assam and Bangla-speaking Muslims who are seen as outsiders. The idea behind this is to bring into its fold the Assamese-speaking Muslims. Let us see how far it succeeds.

The writer is a professor and currently the director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi