K.C. Singh | Will Thai, Lankan Outreach Counter China & US Tariffs?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the seven-nation sixth Bimstec summit and held bilateral meetings with the leaders of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal. More extensive talks followed with Thai leaders and, later, the Sri Lankans during the bilateral visit to Colombo on April 5-6. This happened as US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of varying intensity, on all nations trading with the United States.

The group has five members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) and two from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). The summit was in Bangkok on April 4. Created in 1997, to enhance regional cooperation, which India-Pakistan political differences were stymieing, it has progressed slowly because periodically some members’ domestic politics has led to exploiting the Sino-Indian distrust. The Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka adopted a distinctly pro-China tilt, thus diminishing Indian influence. Similarly, the Communist parties in Nepal have allowed greater Chinese presence in a nation that has a porous border with India. The same tendency is now manifested by the interim government in Bangladesh. As a result of this, despite the lofty claims, Bimstec progresses gradually.

Prime Minister Modi’s recent foreign visit is significant for multiple reasons. One, Muhammad Yunus, the chief adviser to Bangladesh’s interim government, needed to engage. They had no contact since Sheikh Hasina’s term as Prime Minister in August last year and the political churn, including the arguing of the minorities and members of the Awami League. Mr Yunus instead visited China and on return, provocatively, invited it to utilise its geopolitically advantageous location. Although Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake made his first visit abroad to India, his party’s Marxist orientation and the Sinhala-Buddhist rhetoric raised India’s concerns. It noticeably performed well in strongholds of the former ruling Rajapaksa family. His election followed the 2022 mass public protests. His National People’s Party thereafter swept the general election in November 2024.

The party supported a popular demand to renegotiate the IMF’s bailout terms. For India, the main concern was how it balanced relations with India and China.

The April 5-6 Sri Lanka visit thus had several objectives. A series of memoranda of understanding (MOUs) were signed, covering the sharing of Indian digital public infrastructure experience; defence; health and medicine as well as pharmaceuticals; upgradation of railway projects; export and import of power, etc.

The development of the crucially located Trincomalee port on Sri Lanka’s east coast as an energy hub is an old proposal. Now it has been expanded into a trilateral project by involving the UAE.

Two other elements stand out. One, India’s wooing of the Indian Origin Tamils (IOTs). Prime Minister Modi conspicuously met their delegates because of President Dissanayake’s reticence on their situation, particularly after the main Tamil organisation’s split. India has supported housing for Tamils since the LTTE’s defeat in 2009. Now 10,000 houses were announced, though it is unclear if this an additionality or just a topping-up. Political support was reiterated by demanding that the IOTs receive “equality, dignity and justice”. That in the Sri Lankan context has been easier said than done.

Two, Mr Modi used the opportunity to bring Bhagwan Ram into the picture, especially on the eve of Ram Navami. The Seetha Eliya temple, marking the spot where Ravan had supposedly detained Sita, is to receive assistance. Prime Minister Modi’s flight home conspicuously overflew the Ram Setu, the island chain in the Palk Straits believed by the faithful to be remnants of the Bhagwan Ram-created land bridge to rescue Sita. Mr Modi’s stopover in Tamil Nadu to inaugurate projects simply illustrated that the Sri Lanka visit tied in with the BJP’s strategy to politically penetrate the defiant Tamil fortress.

To balance this, Mr Modi paid obeisance at Anuradhapura’s Buddhist monuments and temples. Similarly in Thailand, the PM visited Buddhist temples and holy sites. He had official-level talks with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. On the sidelines he met her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, who spent decades in exile due to differences with the military-royal elite. Again, multiple memoranda of understanding were inked on establishing a strategic partnership, cooperation in digital technologies and micro, small and medium enterprises. Economic and trade ties were reviewed, as bilateral trade lingers at $15 billion in 2023-24. There was an agreement to “strengthen supply chains between India and Asean countries”. Just as Gujrat-based relics of Gautam Buddha are to be lent for display in Sri Lanka, Thailand will help establish the National Maritime Heritage Complex at Lothal, Gujarat. People-to-people contacts assume importance for Thailand as with visa removal for Indian tourists they fill the void left by diminished Chinese tourists.

Bimstec’s Bangkok Vision 2030, adopted on April 4, lays its future path. President Donald Trump’s global tariff onslaught will hit all members, but particularly Bangladesh’s struggling garment export industry. Generally, it will disrupt global supply chains carrying products of Chinese joint ventures or US outsourcing. A prime example being Apple and Nike in Vietnam. If President Trump’s tariffs persist, despite harming global confidence in US markets, then alternative supply chains may develop, driven by China and the G-7 minus the US. Sub-regional and regional groups like Bimstec, Asean, etc can be the building blocks of a new order.

However, the domestic politics of India’s neighbours often throw up political forces distrustful of India. The Chinese role becomes important if it can overcome its paranoia over India’s likely rise and focus instead on the immediate threat from US actions? China may instead utilise the global disorder to strengthen its stranglehold over its immediate maritime neighbourhood, especially Taiwan.

Bimstec’s focus on easing maritime connectivity counters China’s hegemonic undermining of the freedom of the seas. Overland connectivity, symbolised by the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway, stalled by civil war in Myanmar and now Bangladeshi distrust of India, is delayed. Once again, China can facilitate or undermine it as any east-west connectivity across East Asia challenges the China-centric projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Mr Modi’s interaction with Myanmar’s senior general Min Aung Hlaing would have enabled the assessment of their domestic challenges, especially after the devastating earthquake, for which India has rushed assistance. Myanmar’s cooperation is necessary to ensure that no elements, including China, exploit the porosity of the India-Myanmar border to destabilise India’s Northeast. In an increasingly uncertain world, India must insulate itself by enhanced trust and cooperation in its immediate neighbourhood. Mr Modi’s visit was an attempt in that direction.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry. He tweets at @ambkcsingh.