K.C. Singh | Will fallout at home, abroad restrain Trump disruption?

Immediately after his January 20 inauguration as America’s 47th President, Donald Trump unleashed a flurry of executive orders, both to undo his predecessor Joe Biden’s policies but also to implement his “Make America Great Again” agenda. His will to rule autocratically was manifest, without any debate or advice.

His remaking of America covers immigration, justice, bureaucracy, race relations, gender, trade, defence, foreign relations and the environment. He threatens to buy, annex or occupy territory ranging from Greenland to Canada and the Panama Canal. But his diverse coalition of supporters were cajoled into supporting him as he echoed their concerns and prejudices. The test will come quickly as people expect their economic conditions to improve and immigration controlled.

He acted quickly on immigration, barring birthright citizenship and starting the deportation of illegal aliens, encountering some hurdles. A federal judge stayed the birthright citizenship ban orders, which representatives of some Democrat-run states challenged in the courts.

Colombia refused permission to US military aircraft carrying deportees. Mr Trump promptly imposed tariffs on Colombian exports, including coffee and fresh flowers. Equally suddenly, the issue was resolved. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro, however, tweeted a message to Mr Trump, underscoring America’s racial tensions and rejecting Mr Trump’s pro-oil policies as they will “wipe out the human species”.

Having tolerated past torture, he said he resented “white slavers” like Mr Trump. He noted that the Panama Canal’s land was Colombian, and thus it belongs to them. President Petro’s nationalistic rage sets a precedent and an early warning to Mr Trump: unilateralism has a diplomatic cost.

Will Mr Trump now moderate his anti-immigrant crusade to avoid a severe global fallout? If so, Indian illegal immigrants, numbering over 700,000, may not be massively targeted if Mr Trump approves a symbolic and limited series of deportations. The Indian government has indicated its willingness to accept deportees, already shortlisted. A mass deportation of an estimated 11.7 million illegal aliens will hugely disrupt the US economy as they provide cheap labour in the construction and agriculture fields. And yet he may ignore the Colombian fracas.

Global concern lingers over Mr Trump’s threat of universal tariffs of 10 per cent on all imports, with China, Mexico and Canada facing higher rates. In addition to imbalanced trade, China allegedly exports fentanyl precursors while the other two facilitate illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling. The Indian government must prepare to lower tariffs on US goods to appease Mr Trump. Not inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his inauguration and speaking on the phone only a week later raises some questions. Is Mr Trump nursing some personal hurt, perhaps about Mr Modi not meeting him last year despite Mr Trump publicly announcing it; or perhaps India is a lower diplomatic priority for Mr Trump, focused mainly on China, Russia and Israel? TikTok’s deferred ban and presidential associate Elon Musk’s close China ties, due to Tesla’s electric vehicle manufacturing there, indicates some back-channel messaging. If US-China relations normalise, India may lose, as the Chinese rise and potential rivalry with the US has driven the US to strengthen India technologically and militarily. However, even in 2017, Mr Trump first warmly hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago. The relationship subsequently went downhill, especially after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

By abandoning WHO and the Paris climate agreement, Mr Trump is damaging multilateralism. China has the resources to step in, as should India. India and China both want freer global trade and reformed multilateralism. This may be motivating China to begin de-escalating the Ladakh border situation, caused by Chinese incursions in 2020. The first visit by an Indian foreign secretary to Beijing, since then, indicates some Chinese rethink. Thus, Mr Trump’s disruptive threats may be compelling China to tactically engage India.

Mr Trump inherited two major global crises: the Ukraine and Gaza wars. He had boasted he could end the Ukraine war in one day. He skipped even mentioning it in his inaugural speech. In his predecessor’s presence he took credit for the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release. He has politely urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war or face serious sanctions. Simultaneously, he urged the Gulf oil producers to help lower oil prices by ramping up production. Logically that could put pressure on Mr Putin, but the Gulf rulers may not comply. If sanctions follow, the US under Mr Trump may be unwilling to make an exception for India buying discounted Russian oil. Indian imports of that oil during April-October were 40 per cent of its total oil imports.

On Israel-Palestinian relations, Mr Trump first claimed credit for the Gaza ceasefire, then withdrew sanctions on far-right figures in Israel and settlers’ groups in the West Bank. Consequently, they began rampaging in occupied territories targeting Palestinians. Finally, Mr Trump urged Egypt and Jordan to take more Palestinian refugees to enable Gaza’s depopulation. Again, it sounds logical as with most housing destroyed by Israeli bombs and Israel wanting to demolish the tunnel system fully, people need to move to safer camps. However, the Palestinian experience has been that Israel refuses re-entry to refugees evicted from their properties. Unwilling to enter this mess, Jordan rejected the proposal.

The US aims to give Israel space and control in the West Bank and Gaza so that it agrees to a notional Palestinian state, mostly in the West Bank, pockmarked by Israeli settlements. Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s son-in-law, drafted a 2020 US peace plan with Palestinian displacement into Egypt’s Sinai. The US hoped that would facilitate Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, created during Mr Trump’s first term, which normalised Israel’s relations with Bahrain and the UAE initially, in 2020. That agreement was to create an Iran-containing Middle Eastern alliance.

Mr Trump rolling back America’s green economy initiatives of President Joe Biden will negatively impact the world. With Elon Musk encouraging neo-Nazi party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Mr Trump inviting for the inauguration only right-wing heads of government of Argentina, Hungary and Italy illustrates the threat to the domestic politics of Nato allies. Incessantly demanding Canada’s merger with the US is a coarsely unfriendly approach to a neighbour and an ally. Mr Trump’s time is limited, with the US mid-term elections due in 2026. The Indian government should realise that theatrical shows and flattery alone may no longer work. Trump 2.0 isn’t the old Trump plus scowl. He is a determined disruptor shaping the US as per the MAGA agenda with the world and allies sidelined. India can play along as mass disruptors can get undermined quickly as their unwieldy domestic alliance shatters and foreign allies circle their wagons.