Manish Tewari | Assad exit new chapter or uncertain tomorrow?

There is however a strategic school of thought that holds that Bashar-Al-Assad’s exit was not a collapse but a modus vivendi brokered by Iran, Russia and Turkey to ensure a transition of power to the HTS that involved Assad leaving the country while key regime figures led by Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali would stay back to hand over the country to the new rulers. How much of this is true would depend upon whether the apparatchiks of the Baath party escape retribution when the HTS and its allies assume full control and command.

As Syrians witness the end of an era, emotions are a mix. The new leadership's history and objectives cast a shadow over the path ahead for a nation scarred by decades of turbulence.

A Nation’s Descent into Turmoil: The fall of the Assad dynasty marks a turning point in Syria’s history, but to grasp its full significance, one must reflect on the nation’s troubled past. Bashar al-Assad assumed power in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled with an iron fist for three decades. Hopes for reform under Bashar quickly faded as he perpetuated his father’s autocratic governance.

The Arab Spring in 2011 inspired Syrians to call for political change and greater freedoms, but Assad’s violent crackdown transformed protests into a devastating civil war. By the mid-2010s, Syria became a battleground for proxy wars, with Russia and Iran backing Assad, while Turkey, Qatar and Western powers supported Opposition groups. Extremist factions like ISIS and HTS exploited the turmoil, further fragmenting the conflict.

The toll has been catastrophic; over 500,000 deaths, millions displaced, and a once-vibrant nation left in ruins. Despite regaining significant territory by 2020, Assad’s control remained incomplete, with parts of Syria under Opposition dominance. A fragile ceasefire in Idlib, brokered by Russia and Turkey, created a temporary stalemate. Now, in December 2024, the sudden collapse of Assad’s regime opens a new chapter.

A Fragile Transition: Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani), has announced the formation of a transitional authority. The incumbent Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Jalali, has been appointed to oversee state institutions during this interim period, pledging inclusivity. However, HTS’s history of extremism clouds its assurances.

The situation remains fragmented, with groups like the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces maintaining control over various regions. This fractured landscape complicates the prospects for unified governance and security. Meanwhile, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, representing former Opposition factions, has voiced support for a democratic transition but remains wary of collaborating with HTS.

Doubts linger over HTS’s long-term intentions. Its Islamist ideology and authoritarian tendencies risk plunging Syria into another cycle of oppression.

Global Ripples of Assad’s Fall: The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has triggered seismic reactions worldwide. For Russia, which intervened in 2015 to bolster Assad, this represents a significant setback. Strategic assets like the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase in Latakia are crucial to Moscow’s regional influence. Yet, with its focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia’s capacity to retain a strong presence in Syria is now in question.

Iran faces a major disruption to its “Axis of Resistance,” a critical corridor connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria.

Turkey, hosting over three million Syrian refugees, finds itself in a complex situation. While Ankara officially denies involvement in the HTS offensive, experts suggest indirect support or tacit approval may have played a role. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to address the refugee crisis and counter Kurdish militias in northern Syria, but HTS’s rise adds unpredictability to these plans.

Israel, too, confronts a shifting landscape. The ascendance of HTS raises fresh security concerns. Israel has strengthened its defences along the Golan Heights, wary of the risk of extremists gaining access to advanced weaponry.

In Europe, the response has been cautious. Countries like Germany, Austria and the UK have paused asylum applications for Syrians, citing concerns about the safety of returning refugees. The European Union has emphasised the importance of stable conditions before repatriation can be considered.

India’s Stakes in a Changing Syria: India and Syria share a relationship rooted in history, with diplomatic ties established in 1950. This connection is symbolised by a Damascus street named after Jawaharlal Nehru. Over the years, Syria supported India on the Kashmir issue, while India backed Syria’s claim over the Golan Heights.

The fall of the Assad regime now casts a shadow over India’s political and economic interests. Significant investments, such as joint oil exploration projects and a $240 million line of credit for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant, face uncertainty. Additionally, India’s plans for an India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean trade corridor, in which Syria plays a role, could encounter obstacles.

Another pressing concern is the potential resurgence of ISIS amid Syria’s instability. For India, this represents a direct security challenge and raises fears of extremist ideologies gaining traction in the region, complicating both national and regional security dynamics.

A Crossroads for Syria: The fall of Bashar al-Assad has left Syrians facing a challenging future. The ability of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to evolve from an extremist organisation into a responsible governing body remains highly questionable.

For India, the evolving crisis highlights the importance of a dynamic foreign policy. Prioritising counterterrorism cooperation, engaging diplomatically with Syria’s transitional authorities and protecting economic investments will be critical. India’s active role in fostering regional stability during this pivotal period could prove significant.

While Assad’s fall marks the end of a long and tumultuous chapter, its aftermath will determine whether Syria moves toward peace or endures further suffering. For its people, weary from years of conflict, the hope of reclaiming their country rests on the tenuous possibility of a brighter future.