Sanjaya Baru | NDA triumph in Maha will stabilise Modi’s leadership

Hence, the decisive mandate secured by the BJP and its allies, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar), in the state Assembly elections in Maharashtra will certainly help stabilise the Narendra Modi government in New Delhi. It will also boost his personal standing, wounded by the May 2024 Lok Sabha results.

The BJP’s loss of its parliamentary majority in the Lok Sabha elections, requiring it to revive the National Democratic Alliance, securing the support of the Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), had clearly impacted Prime Minister Modi’s standing and, perhaps, his own self-confidence. The party’s decision not to field him prominently in the Haryana campaign, where the BJP returned to power in the face of anti-incumbency, only helped to perpetuate the public impression that Mr Modi’s standing had eroded.

That loss of elan, many believe, had softened up Mr Modi. The meeting between RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath has been cited as evidence of the Sangh Parivar seeking a new mascot.

It was Yogi Adityanath who gave the campaign slogan for Maharashtra, though this was rejected by elements within the BJP and by Ajit Pawar. As if to further dilute the relevance of the PM in the Maharashtra campaign, news reports appeared suggesting that Nitin Gadkari, a critic of Mr Modi, had been drafted into the Maharashtra campaign to boost the BJP’s chances.

If, after all this, the BJP had lost power in Maharashtra, the government of Prime Minister Modi would have been reduced virtually to a lame duck government. Coming on top of the expose pertaining to businessman Gautam Adani in the United States, a BJP defeat would have grievously hurt Mr Modi’s standing. It would have been a major political earthquake perhaps necessitating a major Cabinet reshuffle in New Delhi.

Political analysts were, therefore, watching the Maharashtra result with bated breath. While exit polls had predicted a win for the BJP-led alliance, both public and experts’ faith in exit polls has been considerably eroded. A widely held view among political analysts was that the Maharashtra verdict would either produce a hung Assembly or at best give a wafer-thin majority to the BJP-led alliance. In the event, the BJP-led alliance has secured a decisive victory. It is even possible that a BJP leader will now be elected chief minister.

Given the importance of the state and its capital for the national economy, this result should help stabilise the Narendra Modi government and boost the Prime Minister’s personal standing at home and overseas. Whatever doubts were raised by the BJP’s loss of its majority in the Lok Sabha elections will now be cast aside. Mr Modi will remain Prime Minister for the rest of his term. This fact alone can help focus national attention on the agenda for economic development and growth.

One can only hope that Mr Modi will make the best use of this reassurance granted to him by the Maharashtra electorate. The fact is that the global environment remains fraught and, therefore, requires careful and sober management at home.

Two recent developments have improved the global environment for India. First, the election of Donald Trump as America’s next President, who still retains a certain warmth towards Mr Modi and India. Second, the improvement in the relationship with China thanks to the sustained efforts of both New Delhi and Beijing.

Despite these two positive developments with respect to the two most important global players, the US and China, the global environment is still full of uncertainties. The conflicts in Europe and West Asia are nowhere near finding a resolution. Many hope that Mr Trump will facilitate a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war and rein in the globally isolated Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. However, neither outcome appears imminent.

India has to brace itself for actions on the trade front by a protectionist Trump and for continued pressure on oil prices. The superficial bravado about Indian economic growth numbers hides real concern about continued subdued income and employment growth and consumer demand. Exports remain sluggish and the rupee is under added pressure.

The Prime Minister would also be well advised to take a close and sharp look at the two issues that have caused considerable global embarrassment for India -- the Gurpatwant Singh Pannun affair and the Gautam Adani affair. While the Trump administration is unlikely to push on both issues beyond a point, both are now caught in the intractable US judicial system.

Whatever the Indian official stance and whatever the final outcome, the fact is that both these affairs have cut close to the powers that be in New Delhi. Neither affair should have happened. It is possible that in both cases the Prime Minister had no knowledge of what had happened. Yet, he must act firmly so that such incidents are not repeated in future. This will require management changes both in the Union government and at the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The newly re-empowered Mr Modi, with the Maharashtra result in hand, has the mandate and the power to act. He must.

Given the external and domestic economic situation, the political reassurance secured by Prime Minister Modi should hopefully help him focus on getting the economy on track. Equally important is the domestic security front. It is time the Prime Minister paid greater attention to the situation in Manipur and the Northeast in general; restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir and revive the National Development Council (NDC) and the National Integration Council (NIC).

The electorate in Maharashtra has given Prime Minister Modi an opportunity to secure his place in history not as India’s “Divider-in-Chief”, as America’s Time magazine put it in 2019, not as a disruptor and destabiliser but as a national “stabiliser” who finally brings the nation together and takes it forward. Cynics will pooh-pooh this hopeful statement but it is a desirable outcome one can still hope for this weekend.