Sunil Gatade | A different cup of tea as Maha polls loom in aftermath of Haryana shock

Right or wrong, the BJP’s shock victory in Haryana has sent a chill down the Opposition’s spine in Maharashtra ahead of the
keenly-contested Assembly polls.

Haryana handed a shock defeat to the Congress which had been the hot favourite in the media and also in the exit polls. The BJP, which was the underdog, succeeded in creating a hat-trick to remain in power, surprising even a section of the party.
The obvious question is whether the Haryana result will have an impact on Maharashtra, where the BJP-led Mahayuti is in the saddle and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is giving it a run for its money.

No two elections are similar. The politics of Haryana and Maharashtra is different, like chalk and cheese. Haryana is tiny compared to Maharashtra, and the problems faced by the western state are vastly different, and huge. That apart, the problem of agrarian distress as well as joblessness is common to both states.
Interestingly, the Haryana results made the constituents of the MVA equal partners, as the Congress can no longer play big brother. This could strengthen camaraderie in the MVA, and the feeling that unless they work like a band of brothers, they too would face an upset.
For non-BJP members in the Mahayuti, the BJP would like to dominate and have its way in seat allocations. The command of the BJP-led Mahayuti will be in the hands of home minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While the MVA has to fine-tune the caste balance delicately against the backdrop of growing tension between Marathas and OBCs and expose the Mahayuti government on its promises and performance, the BJP-led front is unlikely to desist from using the Hindutva card for polarisation.
What the Haryana outcome has done in Maharashtra is to caution the Opposition MVA against daydreaming that it has already come to power. The tendency to take the BJP for granted boomeranged in Haryana and that should be kept in mind in Maharashtra – this is how a political observer puts it.
It means that Haryana’s outcome should be taken as a wake-up call. The MVA needs to do foremost to make a common cause to fight unitedly on a strong narrative and a vibrant campaign and not rest till victory. Candidate selection is crucial.
The Haryana victory is a huge morale booster for the Modi-Shah BJP, which was down in the dumps after the Lok Sabha polls where it failed to secure a majority on its own. Haryana has come as an elixir to the world’s largest party, which is facing its worst crisis since Mr Modi emerged on the national scene in May 2014.
It is equally true that the BJP is cleverly spreading the Haryana narrative to ensure that people don’t see its debacle in the Kashmir Valley in the J&K elections, the first after scrapping of the controversial article 370. It was projected as a momentous occasion in the nation’s history. The BJP failed to win a single seat in the Valley and its entire strategy there collapsed like a pack of cards.
In Haryana, the BJP’s fight was with the Congress, but in the J&K Assembly polls its target was regional parties. And the results were different.

Mr Modi’s emergence in May 2014 was a defining moment in the politics of the country as well as that of Maharashtra. Overnight, the BJP catapulted from the number four spot to number one in the Assembly polls held in October that year on the back of the strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls. That time, the Congress could secure just two out of 48 seats and the undivided NCP four seats. The Shiv Sena was undivided and was part of the NDA.
It not only meant the saffron rise in the premier state but also the decline of the Congress in one of its bastions. The tragedy is that the BJP has failed to stabilise in the state and also failed to make various experiments, including splitting two regional parties to be on top of the game.
Maharashtra has always been a part of the national mainstream as no regional party has been able to form a government on its own despite leaders like the late Bal Thackeray and Sharad Pawar heading regional parties.
The BJP and the Congress had tried to go it alone in the 2014 Assembly polls, but failed to get a majority.
Things look different for the BJP than what they were earlier in poll-bound Maharashtra, where much water has flown down the Krishna and Godavari. The BJP’s dominance in the premier state is coming under threat, from all parties including the Congress, which it virtually left for dead a decade ago.

Maharashtra is neither Haryana and Gujarat nor Madhya Pradesh, where one-party rule has been established. It has been witnessing coalition governments since 1995 without a break, thereby compelling the national parties to remain dependent on regional parties for power. A section of the Opposition in Maharashtra is concerned over the alleged misuse of EVMs in the wake of the Haryana outcome.

With the state seeing a rollercoaster ride since 2019 with many dramatic political developments, it will be foolhardy to assume that the state would witness sudden stability after so much turmoil. The battle is just beginning for the wealthiest state in the country. It is going to be a tricky affair for rival alliances. No one can take anything for granted. One thing is, however, sure. It will be the fiercest fight witnessed for the capture of Mumbai.