Anita Katyal | Punjab is on edge: With AAP battling for survival, will Cong make gains?

After its crushing defeat in Delhi last month, the Aam Aadmi Party quickly shifted focus to Punjab, the only other state where it is in power. The Delhi loss after two consecutive wins was a warning to the AAP leadership that it could ill-afford to make tall promises and announce grandiose plans without delivering.

Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP rode to power in Punjab three years ago with a pledge to replicate the “Delhi model of governance”, giving primacy to education, civic amenities, healthcare and with zero tolerance for corruption. With Delhi voters showing disenchantment with this model, it became imperative for the AAP to “Save Punjab” before it is pushed to the margins in the 2027 Assembly polls.

Mr Kejriwal first convened a stock-taking meeting with Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and party MLAs. He followed up by giving charge of the state to his former deputy and confidant Manish Sisodia along with former minister Satyendar Jain, who were asked to camp in the state and oversee the implementation of the party’s election promises.

The Bhagwant Mann government is also on an overdrive, making a slew of announcements aimed primarily at sending out a message that it is serious about changing Punjab for the better. He announced plans to provide housing to the poorer sections, payment of Rs 14,000 crores pending arrears and creation of 60,000 jobs in the government and private sector. Though three years late, the AAP government showed a new resolve to crack down on corruption with the suspension of revenue officers and dismissal of policemen, and has drawn up an elaborate blueprint to tackle the drug menace.

It further sought to dispel the perception that it is not in control as it cracked down on encampments set up by farmers at the Shambhu and Khanauri borders. This was a calculated risk as it could alienate the Sikh peasantry, but it could also win the AAP brownie points with angry urban residents and industrialists, whose work was suffering because of the road blockades.

While the AAP leadership has swung into action well before the next election, it may prove to be too little, too late. Punjab is cash-strapped and the AAP government has failed to attract industrial investments or tackle corruption. The drug menace is showing no signs of going away, farmers are up in arms and the overall perception is that the CM and his ministers lack the experience to administer the state. Unless the AAP leadership succeeds in changing public opinion in the next two years, its political prospects appear bleak.

While a worried AAP is making intense efforts to ensure Punjab doesn’t go the Delhi way in 2027, it can draw consolation from the fact that its rivals also have to work hard to re-establish themselves as a credible political force.

The 100-year-old Shiromani Akali Dal, a dominant political player in Punjab, is battling a severe existential crisis. Though best positioned to take advantage of the political flux in Punjab, the Congress has a credibility problem. The BJP enjoys the support of Hindus in the state’s urban areas but it needs to supplement this by winning over the Jat peasantry, for which the Centre will have to first mollify the protesting farmers.

Of the three, the Akali Dal is easily the worst hit. At a time when Akali leader Sukhbir Singh Badal should be rebuilding the party and drawing up a fresh strategy to get back into the electoral game, he is busy saving his position which has weakened after SAD’s poor performance in the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls. His personal image took a further hit after he was declared a “tankhaiya” (guilty of religious misconduct) by the Akal Takht, the highest Sikh temporal seat. The recent removal of the two jathedars who declared Sukhbir Badal a tankhaiya has placed the Akalis in a fresh political storm over perceived interference in religious institutions.

Faced with a serious leadership crisis, SAD is struggling with growing internal dissension, a high attrition rate and has to deal with the emergence of a new political player, jailed MP and “Khalistan” supporter Amritpal Singh, whose new party, Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De), is making a play for the Akalis’ Panthic support base.

Though Punjab has been immune to the BJP’s charm offensive, the party is convinced it is in with a chance in the state after it doubled its vote share to 18 per cent in the last Lok Sabha polls despite the fact that the Akalis snapped ties with it in protest against the controversial farm laws.

Confident about its grip on the Hindu vote bank, the BJP has been going all out to make inroads in rural areas and wooing Jat Sikhs, whose support is crucial to win Punjab. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the lead in this project, having made several trips to gurdwaras over the past few years and heaping praise on the Sikh community at every given opportunity. The BJP fielded three Sikhs in the recent Delhi Assembly elections, and followed it up by inducting Manjinder Singh Sirsa as a minister in Rekha Gupta’s government. However, all these efforts may come to naught if the Narendra Modi government’s dialogue with the agitating farmers remains inconclusive.

With the AAP’s popularity registering a steady downward slide, the Congress believes it will be an automatic beneficiary of the growing anti-incumbency against the Bhagwant Mann government. However, the Congress has its own problems as its current crop of state leaders do not inspire much confidence and there is strong resistance to the induction of younger faces. Factionalism in the state unit is another cause of concern but, more importantly, an over-confident Congress has a knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Haryana is a recent example.