Debotri Dhar | In a multipolar world, will the Quad be able to thrive?

Clearly a farewell gesture to the outgoing President, there have been some interesting developments around the September summit.

The basics remain somewhat unchanged, with the strategic cooperation framework between the four democracies aimed at strengthening maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. As in the case of its first joint statement which had no direct reference to China and no mutual defence pact -- even though the 2017 Asean summit’s decision to revive the Quad was a result of the Chinese actions in the South China Sea -- this 2024 meet also steered clear of highly provocative attacks aimed at China. A stronger warning to Beijing may have been Washington’s and now Tokyo’s preference – the United States and Japan share a defence treaty, and the Japanese leadership is promoting the idea of an “Asian Nato” for the Indo-Pacific’s future. But India and Australia played a moderating role, with India’s Prime Minister saying the Quad stands for a free and open Indo-Pacific with respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and promoting collective prosperity, and is not against any country. More recently, India’s external affairs minister S. Jaishankar also emphasised that a security alliance-type architecture does not suit India’s history and strategic vision.

Sino-Indian territorial disputes, including the deployment of 60,000 Chinese troops near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Beijing’s claims over India’s Arunachal Pradesh and other areas, have resulted in a tense military and political face-off, especially since the 2020 deadly clash in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. While some media reports point to diplomatic progress in bridging differences in eastern Ladakh, indications that Beijing may be constructing permanent infrastructure across the LAC, ongoing tensions in Depsang and Demchok, and the inability of Indian troops to access peacetime patrolling points has resulted in New Delhi maintaining forward troop deployment. So, India not taking a more strident position against China at the Quad summit seems to reflect, firstly, a pragmatic desire to avoid the economic and human costs of a full-fledged war.

Secondly, New Delhi’s relations with its immediate neighbours are currently not the best. The fall of Sheikh Hasina government in Dhaka paved the way for an expanded role for Bangladesh’s Army, the Jamaat-e-Islami, and pro-Pakistani hardliner factions in Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policy, at a time when New Delhi-Islamabad bilateral ties are also at a low. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet in Pakistan during October 15-16 would have been an opportunity for bilateral talks, but Mr Jaishankar has ruled this out. Relations with Nepal continue to present a diplomatic challenge, though there has been a resumption of communication with Kathmandu to address outstanding bilateral issues and Prime Minister Modi’s planned visit to Nepal. On the positive side, the India-Bhutan friendship is still going strong, there has been improved dialogue with the Maldives, particularly during President Mohamed Muizzu’s recent visit, and a potentially collaborative roadmap with Colombo following President Anura Dissanayake’s electoral victory in Sri Lanka on the promise of increasing sovereignty and economic parity, reassessing Chinese investments and reducing foreign control over the island nation. Under the circumstances, New Delhi is working to strengthen friendly alliances rather than further inciting adversarial elements in its vicinity.

The Quad grouping for the Indo-Pacific is unique in that it cuts across traditional geopolitical divides between the West and the Global South. Given the historical and contemporary inequities in international relations, the Quad’s espousal of a “rules-based order” must ensure that rules are formulated collaboratively. Realising that the answer to local and global challenges ultimately lay in forging a more representative world order led me, some years ago, to research and write on friendship as a framework in political and cultural theory. Indian cultural narratives offer rich perspectives on friendship based on mutual respect and understanding, where the more powerful does not use the one with less power for their own agenda. The friendship between Lord Krishna and Sudama, for instance, where the latter’s poverty does not stop the just king of Dwarka from listening to his friend as an equal and yet with care. Such stories can teach both ethics and effectiveness to the hardheaded calculus of international coalition-building.

A year ago, my piece on the Quad’s pivotal place in a broader Indo-Pacific security agenda made the case for it to not be reduced to a purely militaristic alliance, instead also emphasising its multidimensional activities such as gender, global health security, socio-economic development and humanitarian assistance to meet member nations’ needs. A key debate among policymakers worldwide concerns the ratio between military and domestic spending. While calls for abolishing the Army are impossible to imagine in the real world outside academic ivory towers, the other extreme of building heavily militarised security states without adequate attention to domestic socio-economic development does not serve a democratic world order either. In comparison to the more developed Quad nations that also have a slew of socioeconomic needs to address, India’s domestic development needs are greater, from education and healthcare for the marginalised, to electricity, improved roads and other infrastructure, especially in non-metropolitan areas, to women’s safety, from the poorest workers to more privileged women in the home and the workplace. This Quad summit’s Cancer Moonshot initiative to address cancer as a serious health issue in the Indo-Pacific by expanding upon health infrastructure and support systems for prevention and cure, beginning with high rates of cervical cancer among women, is an example of a beneficial use of member-nations’ resources for human well-being.

In a major global development, the growing call for India’s inclusion as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, as a leading voice for the Global South, recently resounded again at the UN General Assembly. Endorsements have come from France, Britain and the US, as well as from Global South nations like Portugal, Chile and Bhutan, whose Prime Minister described India as Bhutan’s closest friend that has steadfastly supported the Himalayan nation’s development. Since Japan’s inclusion as a permanent member of the UNSC is a part of the same global call for UN reforms, this would result in three out of four Quad nations becoming permanent members of the UNSC with veto power if the reforms do come to pass, making it a powerful transnational grouping even without a formal defence treaty. Strengthening the Quad strategic dialogue for regional and global good should therefore be a policy priority for this friendship.