Indranil Banerjie | Delhi and changing power equations in Indian Ocean

A tiny windswept island in one of the remotest corners of the western Indian Ocean, thousands of miles from the shores of any continent, has emerged as a symbol of India’s growing maritime ambitions. This 12-km long by 1.5-km wide island known as Agalega is being developed as a naval base by New Delhi under a strategic agreement with the island nation of Mauritius, ties with which were further strengthened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to its capital Port Louis earlier this month.

Agalega, located about 1,100 km from the Mauritius capital, Port Louis, according to Australian military expert Samuel Bashfield, is “an absolutely perfect spot for a military base”. The southwest Indian Ocean, according to him, “is an area where it’s important for India to have areas where their aircraft can support their ships, and also where it has areas it can use as launching pads for operations”.

During the past few years, India has built a major airstrip there along with large hangars and other facilities capable of accepting the largest aircraft in its inventory, including maritime surveillance aircraft like the P-81, heavy lift transporters as well as fighters. Boeing P-81 surveillance aircraft, which monitor the oceans for surface ships and submarines, are already operating from the airstrip though perhaps not on a regular basis.

A large new jetty has also been built which can berth naval craft, oilers and other supply vessels. This base in the western Indian Ocean coupled with the upcoming Nicobar Island base in the east could support India’s growing fleet of nuclear attack submarines in the future.

Agalega, which has thus attained the status of New Delhi’s furthest military outpost, will remain under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of Mauritius, unlike Western military bases like Diego Garcia which are virtual colonies. The military base is the result of an agreement signed in 2015 between India and Mauritius, which reflected the convergence in the two countries’ strategic aims.

New Delhi has affirmed its role as a trusted partner of Mauritius at a time when Britain is further disengaging from the region due primarily to financial and military reasons. Last October, Britain finally agreed to return the last of its African colonies, the Chagos Islands, to Mauritius, which it had forcibly seized in 1965 and incorporated into a new colony named British Indian Ocean Territory, or BIOT.

The creation of BIOT was driven by strategic imperatives, particularly a desire to retain a military station in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Subsequently, London leased the island of Diego Garcia, located in the Chagos island chain, to the United States for building an air-naval base. Meanwhile, Mauritius, which attained independence in 1968, never reconciled to the loss of the Chagos Islands and continued to fight for its reintegration at various world forums and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

It is significant that New Delhi played an important behind the scenes role in the final British deal on the return of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. While India steadfastly stood by Mauritius’ demand for the Chagos handover, it also supported the continuation of Diego Garcia as a joint US-UK naval base. This is because India views the breakneck speed of Chinese naval expansion in the Indian Ocean as an existential threat and believes its interests lie in working with the Western powers in this region.

The People’s Republic of China has made its intentions in the Indian Ocean region very clear and is rapidly ramping up its naval and military space capabilities there in several ways. Today, almost two dozen Chinese naval ships and submarines are dedicated to operations in the Indian Ocean. This is slated to rise significantly in the near future and the day is not far off when its aircraft-carriers will venture here.

The biggest threat to Indian strategic dynamics is China’s planned deployment of nuclear-powered SSBNs (nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines) in the Indian Ocean. This will have a devastating impact on strategic outcomes for India, which is still not fully in a position to counter such a move. To quickly enable the positioning of at least one SSBN in the region, the Chinese have been sending submarines and survey vessels to chart the oceans around India.

At the most fundamental level, India’s nascent Agalega naval base reflects a profound shift in relative naval power, both at the global and Asian contexts. India’s Agalega move comes in the wake of diminishing power and influence of Britain in the Indian Ocean, which at one time was for all practical purposes a British lake.

Even till three decades ago, the Indian Ocean region was utterly dominated by Western powers. The world’s top naval slots were all taken by the Western and Russian navies. Today, in contrast, the world’s largest navy (albeit not the most powerful one) belongs to China, which is the world’s most aggressively expanding naval power.

In terms of overall naval strength, five of the top ten countries today are Asian, led by China, followed by Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and India. Russia and Turkey also find a place in the top ten, leaving space for just three Western powers -- the United States, which retains the number one slot, France and Britain.

However, as Western naval power in the Indian Ocean continues to recede, India’s importance as a status quoist power that seeks to uphold a rules-based order can only increase. India can thus be a stabilising force in the midst of dramatic shifts in the balance of world naval power, particularly in the Indian Ocean region.

For New Delhi, this region will continue to be crucial. For, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi had remarked in the Sri Lankan Parliament ten years ago, that the “course of the 21st century will be determined by the currents of the Indian Ocean”. The trouble is that these currents never remain still amidst the frenetic jostling for dominance.

New Delhi’s every move is sought to be thwarted by Beijing, which has successfully wooed African and Indian Ocean states, including Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar and the Comoros. India has responded by upgrading strategic ties with Mauritius and restoring frayed ones with the Maldives, Sri Lanka and the Seychelles. It also retains a listening post and radar facility in Madagascar built way back in 2007. Agalega is a response to the geopolitical elbowing that New Delhi cannot avoid any time in the foreseeable future.