Indranil Banerjie | The Dragon’s bear hug: A strategic blunder by US?
The United States might well have committed its biggest strategic blunder in recent history by pushing China into the welcoming arms of Russia. A series of Western trade curbs, geopolitical alliances to contain Chinese assertiveness, curbs on hi-tech flows, sanctioning of businesses and increased military patrolling in sensitive areas such as the Taiwan Straits have combined to rattle Beijing in recent times. But what could have been the proverbial straw on the camel’s back was the Nato secretary-general’s recent threats of possible asset seizure for Beijing’s continued support of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Far from intimidating Beijing, however, this appears to have rebounded and only tightened the growing bonds between Moscow and Beijing.
The Moscow-Beijing hug is now strategic. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 2024 visit to Beijing, where he received an unprecedented welcome from Chinese President Xi Jinping, was an indicator of changing times. The two leaders met face to face again as recently as in July this year during a SCO summit at Astana, where Mr Putin declared that relations between China and Russia, which constitute a “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation”, are now “experiencing their best period in history”. President Xi Jinping added that their two countries “should continue to uphold the original aspiration of friendship for generations to come”.
The two leaders have made it unequivocally clear that they are striving for a more “fair” and “equitable” world, implying that the current world order dominated by the Western powers needs to be realigned.
The military dimensions of this Russia-China entente cordiale is unmistakable. Not only has Mr Putin pointed to Beijing’s consistent support for its policies regarding Ukraine but has paved the way for closer military cooperation. The interception of two Russian Tupolev-95 and Chinese Xi’an H-6 strategic bombers over the Alaskan Air Defence Zone on July 24 this year is indicative of how far military ties have progressed. The flight of Russian and Chinese bombers over the neutral waters of the Bering Sea that separates Alaska from the Russian mainland forced the North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad) to despatch six fighters to intercept and monitor them.
The encounter passed off peacefully but the portents were clear: the United States for the first time in history had witnessed a joint military patrol by China and Russia on the very edge of its territory. This reflects a massive shift in geopolitical realignments that have occurred in recent times.
The emergence of a Russia-China military axis cannot be good news for the West. Last week, the US Commission on the National Defence Strategy submitted a report to the Senate Armed Services Committee warning that the US is not prepared for a war with countries like Russia and China. The report identified China as the principal adversary, given that its military was beginning to outpace that of the United States. Significantly, the report also pointed out that the US is no longer the sole international superpower and could be severely tested in a fight against powers such as Russia, Iran and North Korea. The Russia-China axis in the circumstances would be formidable.
For the first time in more than five decades, the world is witnessing the unravelling of a global strategic engagement put together by former US President Richard M. Nixon and China’s Chairman Mao Zedong over fifty years ago. Justifying the United States’ historic rapprochement with Communist China in 1972, President Nixon had observed: “We must cultivate China during the next few decades while it is learning to develop its national strength and potential. Otherwise, we will one day be confronted with the most formidable enemy that has ever existed in the history of the world.”
Their common enemy at that time was the then Soviet Union. Both Washington and Beijing had begun making conciliatory approaches after the March 1969 border clashes between the Soviets and the Chinese -- triggered by Chinese troops ambushing and killing dozens of Soviet border guards on Damansky Island (much like the Galwan outrage in Ladakh). Subsequent clashes had continued for seven months and it was during this period that Nixon made his intentions clear about seeking a breakthrough with China. Back-channel negotiations led to Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to Beijing in 1971 (facilitated by Pakistan) and ultimately to President Nixon’s historic visit to China in February 1972.
This opened a new era not just in US-China relations but marked a turning point in global geopolitics. The Soviet Union was contained, even hemmed in from both the west and the east. The Washington-Beijing alliance emerged as the strongest pole in the world. The subsequent rise of China thanks to Western technology and capital flows is now history.
The joint flight of Russian and Chinese bombers in what is being euphemistically called a “routine patrol” near Alaska indicates that the wheel has turned full circle for the Russia-China relationship.
Western attempts at intimidation and coercion, far from driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, have only hammered the two former Eurasian rivals closer. The two sides have stepped up military cooperation including joint naval exercises like the one held in July in the South China Sea. China has also begun sending its PLA Navy towards the exclusive economic zone of the US near the Aleutian Islands off the coast of Alaska, and has proclaimed itself a “near-Arctic state” with vital interests in that region.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has hinted at further complications when he said that Russia and China should “jointly counter interference by forces from outside this region in the affairs of Southeast Asia…” This region, especially its seas, has become a region of intense great power rivalry. The matter is complicated by the Taiwan issue and US power projections in the Indo-Pacific. What Mr Lavrov is suggesting is extending the area of conflict with the United States into this region as well.
It is difficult in the circumstances to deny that a new era is dawning in international politics. When Kissinger passed away in late November last year, the Chinese government lamented that it had lost an “old friend of the Chinese people”, but others saw Kissinger’s death as a “watershed moment” for their country. One Chinese commentator remarked: “From now on, it’s the beginning of our rise and for the US to go down”. While that could be wishful thinking, it certainly points to heightened great power rivalry from now on.
