PM Modi and President Trump renewed ties, tackling trade, defense, and global diplomacy while navigating Trump's new tariffs and policies
The much-anticipated meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Donald Trump took place on Thursday, February 13. He was the fourth global leader to engage the new US President, who in his first three weeks has issued a flurry of executive orders. He was delivering on election promises and implementing the far-right Agenda 2025. The visit was crucial for renewing contact with Mr Trump and his new team, and to ensure that his undermining of existing norms, systems and institutions, at home and abroad, did not hamper relations with India.
On the very eve of his meeting with Mr Modi, President Trump signed an executive order imposing “reciprocal tariffs” that would be applicable across the world. Later at a post-meeting press conference, he called it the “easy way” to deal with the American trade imbalances with major nations. India, with a trade imbalance of $45.7 billion, is at number seven amongst nations with a trade surplus. But “reciprocal” may not be practicable as, for instance, India exports $1 billion worth of aluminium to the US and now faces spiked tariffs. However, India does not need to import it from the US.
Despite the inauspicious beginning, India shrewdly adopted a Trump appeasement policy. India’s foreign secretary Vikram Misri, who briefed the media about the meeting, signalled that India came prepared to address President Trump’s oft-voiced concerns regarding imbalanced trade and illegal immigration. But India also wanted to renew Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal relationship with President Trump, ignored during Joe Biden’s presidency, and ensure that cooperation in diverse fields was maintained.
Mr Misri shared the pathway forward. First, to grant Mr Trump a “win”, India agreed that the first phase of a trade agreement shall be finalised by “fall”, or in about seven months. The aim is to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. However, despite several media queries, it is unclear whether the reciprocal tariffs stand deferred in the interim period or if Mr Trump wants them as a hanging sword.
The other areas listed by Mr Misri for cooperation have been on the bilateral agenda over the last decade, with progressive deepening of engagement. Defence cooperation stands out, as India has gradually shifted to procuring American platforms after decades of dependence on Russia. A new ten-year framework, 2025-35, has been adopted, emphasising co-production. A defence procurement agreement is also imminent. Other areas for cooperation are autonomous systems, critical and emerging technologies, space and energy. The last covers both increased buying by India of oil and gas, to partly address the trade imbalance, and civil nuclear energy, especially the development of small modular reactors. India had already tweaked its domestic law, reducing the civil liability of foreign suppliers. The strict procedure had been introduced due to the 1984 Bhopal gas disaster involving America’s Union Carbide.
Other areas for collaboration are scientific research, a strategic minerals initiative, cooperation in higher education, etc. However, hovering over all of them is the shadow of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), with its evangelical Christian and racial undertones. There are also contradictions amidst Mr Trump’s close associates. If technology billionaires from Silicon Valley favour H-1B visas for recruiting global talent, the MAGA supporters xenophobically oppose it. Mr Modi shrewdly took President Trump back to the happy memories of “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” public theatre. But the Indian diaspora’s mood may turn sullen if the crusade against aliens includes legal entrants with their path to permanent residency blocked.
Foreign secretary Vikram Misri said the visit was “substantive and productive”. President Trump announcing that the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a Pakistani national involved in the 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai, stands cleared indicated close counter-terrorism cooperation, even over Pakistani objections. But repeated queries by many Indian journalists about the activities of elements threatening Indian sovereignty and territorial integrity, had Mr Trump respond with generalities, ignoring the phrase “Khalistanis”. Similarly, the Gautam Adani prosecution and the case involving the attempted murder of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, allegedly by Indian agents, were side-stepped by both leaders.
Two international issues elicited interesting responses. When Indian journalists enquired if the China threat motivated India-US engagement, President Trump sidestepped and emphasised the importance of China for resolving many issues, including Ukraine. On Ukraine, Mr Modi said India was not neutral, just pro-peace. He added that repeatedly he advocated dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the issue without hostilities. Mr Modi also deftly backed Mr Trump’s self-appointed role as peacemaker, although Europeans worried that the US President appeared partial to Russia.
On illegal immigration, once again Mr Modi chose cooperation rather than confrontation. While empathising with the misguided Indians adopting the “donkey” route illegal entry into the US, he said the real issue is the ecosystem facilitating the illegal human trafficking networks in the US and abroad.
However, the avoidance of deportation without shackling and handcuffing was not publicly discussed. Because of the huge Indian backlash, following the deportation via a US military aircraft that landed at Amritsar, the Indian delegation must have raised the Colombian solution. Colombia uses its own civilian aircraft to fly back its citizens facing deportation.
All told, Indian diplomats and Prime Minister Modi handled the first engagement with Trump 2.0 well. Gentle flattery and non-confrontational addressing of issues currently dominating Mr Trump’s agenda, besides isolating core areas of engagement from those irritants, was temporarily successful. It was also sensible to show the convergence between Mr Trump’s approach to Israel, Gaza and West Asia and the India Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) and I2U2, finalised during the Biden presidency. But these ideas require normalcy in West Asia and a solution to the Gaza quagmire. Mr Trump’s proposed mass relocation of two million Palestinians from Gaza has been generally rejected.
Similarly, Mr Trump’s ambitious dispute resolution in Ukraine may or may not succeed. Europeans are waiting and watching as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fights American pressure of threatened withdrawal of military and economic assistance. Mr Trump has an exaggerated belief in his negotiating skills. His outreach to North Korea flopped badly during his first term.
However, India has shrewdly bought time to readjust its overprotective tariffs on imports. Meanwhile, India-US engagement across a wide swathe of areas will resume uninterrupted. However, in an inter-connected world, tremors in one region and weakened rule of law globally makes the world more dangerous and prone to sudden jolts. Donald Trump can be a force for change or chaos. Therefore, the BJP would be sensible to seek tolerant governance at home and a friendly outreach in the neighbourhood. As the famous saying goes: “Trust, but verify”.
