The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip comes as a surprise as historically outgoing US Presidents lack the diplomatic muscle to achieve crisis breakthroughs. US President Bill Clinton’s Camp David summit between PLO chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak failed in July 2000. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignored the repeated American calls for a ceasefire since last May, when already the cost of civilian casualties had far exceeded tangible military gains. A number of factors coalesced for this outcome.
First, Israel has managed to optimise its security by decapitating the top leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah, demoralising the latter’s cadres through exploding pagers and thus creating a security vacuum in Syria that allowed a fringe Islamist Sunni group, Hayat Tahreer al-Sham (HTS), to seize power by overthrowing the regime headed by Bashar al-Assad, that had ruled for decades. In direct military confrontation with Iran, involving mutual missile attacks, Israel destroyed Iranian air defences and missile production plants. Thus, Israel had re-gained regional military dominance, including restoration of deterrence against foes.
Prime Minister Netanyahu suspects that President Donald Trump, in his second term beginning Monday, may indulge Israel less than during his previous incarnation, when he unconditionally shifted the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights and cut aid to the Palestinians.
Mr Trump resented Mr Netanyahu immediately congratulating President Joe Biden following his 2020 election victory, while Mr Trump was busy questioning it and inciting mobs to raid the US Capitol complex. Furthermore, the Trumps have cosy business and financial ties with Gulf rulers, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s designated Middle East envoy, had some of these sovereign funds bail him out of a tangled Park Lane hotel deal in New York.
Finally, Mr Trump sponsored the Abraham Accords, signed on September 15, 2020, which normalised relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. The Saudis resisted joining and sensibly held back until Israel presented a solution to the Palestinian problem. Three years later, the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, followed by 15 months of Israeli massacre of civilians in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon, have undermined those accords. Mr Netanyahu knows that President Trump may resurrect them to emulate President Jimmy Carter’s 1979 Camp David Accords.
A Nobel Prize could somewhat wash away the stains of indictment by a New York court and the leaked report about Mr Trump’s culpability for the January 6, 2021 insurrection to stymie the peaceful transfer of power.
As the saying goes, “success has many fathers”. President-elect Trump claimed first that it was his success. In a tweet he called it a “voice for PEACE”. President Joe Biden sarcastically asked, when questioned about others seeking the credit: “Is it a joke?”. More generously he said the representatives of both leaders were “speaking as one team”. Hamas called it the “achievement of our people”. According to Al Jazeera, while Hamas in its attack on Israel killed 1,100 and took 240 captive, the Palestinians killed exceeded 46, 700, including 18,000 children. In Gaza, casualties amount to one out of every 50 people. Tragically, even as the ceasefire news broke, Israel conducted another 50 raids, killing more Palestinians.
The ceasefire deal has three phases. Hamas will release 33 hostages, out of the remaining 98, many perhaps dead. Israel will release multiple-times more Palestinian prisoners. The Israeli defence forces will retreat east of Gaza, allowing hugely scaled-up humanitarian assistance. It is still unclear if Israel will also vacate the Philadelphi Corridor, which separates Gaza from Egypt. Israeli sceptics allege this could enable Hamas to rearm and rotate fighters.
Interestingly, despite the bloodshed and huge civilian toll, Hamas, though greatly weakened, is neither routed nor eliminated, which was Mr Netanyahu’s stated aim.
In Gaza it is now led by Muhammad Sinwar, the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the October 7 attack and leader of Hamas’ fight-back. Clearly military pressure, however extreme, cannot kill a political movement as new recruits are generated in direct proportion to the violence against civilians.
The current deal constitutes a 42-day truce. The exchange of hostages for prisoners and entry of 600 trucks carrying humanitarian assistance must occur in that constrained time-frame. The Israeli Cabinet’s delayed meeting reflects expected resistance from the governing coalition’s far-right partners, especially finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security adviser Itamar Ben-Gvir, who called the deal a “surrender” to Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s image, which shattered after the October 7 Hamas attack, has recovered considerably after the Israeli success in decapitating the leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah. The Assad regime’s ouster in Syria and weakened Iranian influence and diminished support for Shia militias, across West Asia, has enhanced his political standing. Mr Netanyahu must decide whether to side with his far-right coalition allies and reject the ceasefire or ignore them and endanger his government, resulting possibly in a fresh election.
If the ceasefire holds and even gets extended, with more if not all hostages released or their bodies transferred, then a new dawn is possible. But it is still an arduous journey to normalcy and a two-nation solution. Gaza also needs massive relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding of infrastructure and houses. President Trump would expect others to pay, especially the Gulf rulers with trillion-dollar sovereign funds. But Israel also needs to check or even roll back its expansion of the settlements in the occupied territories. Mr Netanyahu has always resisted a two-nation solution. Perhaps an Israeli election is necessary to gauge the public’s opinion on these issues.
These developments are important for India. The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor hinges on normalcy in West Asia. The nine-million strong Indian diaspora in the Gulf and Indian exports to the region as well as India’s energy dependence on it makes peace and security in the Gulf and West Asia vital for India. After an initial pro-Israel stance, due to Hamas’ terror attack, India reverted to its traditional stance demanding a ceasefire, talks and a two-nation solution to the Palestinian issue. Iran remains an unpredictable factor, unless Mr Trump engages it.
Russia and China would also monitor the US moves as the Gaza ceasefire relieves America from a major strategic distraction. Without that, the US can revert full attention to handling Russia in Ukraine and China in the Indo-Pacific. This indicates the high stakes in the success or failure of the move to end the Gaza war and resolve the Israel-Palestine standoff.
