The 20-nation Arab League also found the proposal unacceptable
Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election in November last year ushered a new disruptive phase for the United States and the world. Many felt, like in his first term, that his absurd posturing was mostly a negotiating tactic. But Trump 2.0 is emerging as a more aggressive and retributive leader, unmindful of US constitutional provisions and conventions or the rules-based international order, which the US leadership helped create after the Second World War.
President Trump inherited two major international crises — the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. On the former, he entered office claiming he could end in a day. After a conciliatory message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he urged the oil-producing Gulf nations to help lower the price of oil. That, plus tighter sanctions, is his strategy to push Russia towards a ceasefire and talks.
Before grappling with the Gaza issue, Mr Trump bizarrely sought to annex Canada, making it America’s 51st state, the Panama Canal and Greenland. Tariffs were overnight imposed on Mexican and Canadian exports to the US, despite Trump having himself replaced NAFTA with the US, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA). Thus, the justification now is not imbalanced trade but the failure of both neighbours to check illegal immigration and fentanyl drug-smuggling. Equally suddenly, the tariffs were postponed for a month, claiming the US concerns stood addressed. Critics argued that the solution had already been finalised by his predecessor President Joe Biden.
On Gaza, Mr Trump first surprisingly supported outgoing President Joe Biden’s last-minute ceasefire success on January 19. But immediately after assuming office the next day, he lifted the sanctions on far-right individuals and settlers’ groups in Israel. Those entities immediately began to target the Palestinians in the West Bank. In line with this Israel-pandering, President Trump on February 4 presented his Gaza “solution”, causing international outrage, at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. He proposed “permanently” resettling Gaza’s Palestinian population in another country, while the United States, as he said, “will own it”, redeveloping it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. As a real estate developer, despite his multiple bankruptcies, Mr Trump saw the Mediterranean-facing 365-sq km Gaza Strip as prime property. He completely ignored the historical, cultural, political and humanitarian dimensions of the issue.
Similar thinking was reflected in the peace plan presented by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on January 28, 2020. Although envisioning a Palestinian state, it involved the surrender of Jerusalem, Israeli annexation of the West Bank and partial sovereignty as Israel would control access and airspace. It seems President Trump’s new proposal was drafted without wide consultations with his advisers, his Cabinet and allies abroad.
Egypt and Jordan, the proposed hosts of the displaced Gaza Palestinians, promptly said no. Major European nations like Britain, France and Germany also rejected it. The United Nations said it breached international law and was tantamount to ethnic cleansing. The 20-nation Arab League also found the proposal unacceptable, with the Saudi foreign ministry opposing it “unequivocally”. Other members of the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) echoed the Saudi sentiments. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres insisted that Gaza would have to be an integral part of any future Palestinian state.
Before the Trump-Netanyahu press conference, the two leaders were expected to reveal the Gaza ceasefire’s next phase. The Gaza annexation proposal was naturally welcomed by the Israeli government, as its far-right components threaten to leave the government if the ceasefire continues. The White House spokesperson tried walking it back the following day, explaining that the President was committed to rebuilding Gaza and the displacement of residents would be temporary.
Mr Trump’s novel scheme ignored multiple factors. Firstly, the two million strong Gaza residents have suffered over 47,500 dead and 111,600 injured. Most of the population has already been displaced multiple times as Israeli forces went after Hamas. Palestinians fear that forced removal from Gaza would be a fresh “nakba”, or catastrophe, reminiscent of Palestinians getting displaced from their homes when Israel was created in 1948. In fact, three-quarters of the Gaza Strip’s population are descendants of those refugees. Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal shrewdly suggested that if people have to be moved from Gaza, let it be to their original homes in Israel.
Gaza has faced ethnic cleansing in the past too. After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, almost 75,000 residents were evicted by Israel, constituting a quarter of the population. In 1970-71 Gen. Ariel Sharon, when heading the Israeli Army’s Southern Command, devised the “five finger” strategy, inserting Israeli security forces in five designated Gaza zones. Although Israel withdrew its forces in 2005, its blockade of Gaza, controlling access and airspace, made it a de facto open jail.
With little investment allowed in Gaza, the people depended on jobs in Israel, returning in the evening to their heavily controlled homes in Gaza.
The Israeli repression caused the First Intifada in 1987, which lasted till the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference. That is when India established diplomatic relations with Israel as permanent settlement of the Palestinian issue appeared imminent.
Although the 1993 Oslo Accords, which followed, gave the Palestinians a semi-autonomous though moth-eaten state, the electoral victory of Hamas in 2007 created permanent fissures in the Palestinian movement. The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel undermined the Abraham Accords, negotiated during Mr Trump’s first term, to further normalise Israel-Arab relations. Mr Trump was expected to pursue the same line, by consolidating the Gaza ceasefire first.
Thereafter a transitional government in Gaza, with Hamas sidelined, with the cooperation of the Arab states, could be established, restoring normalcy gradually. Concomitantly, rebuilding and rehabilitation could commence.
Mr Trump’s out-of-the-box solution has undermined that approach. It has forced even long-time American allies like the UAE to side with Saudi Arabia, which had resisted joining the Abraham Accords and normalising ties with Israel unless the pathway to a Palestinian state was clear. Instead, Mr Trump’s Gaza brainwave abandons the two-state solution to the issue, which has global support, including of past US Presidents. Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamanei was emboldened to meet a Hamas delegation. He called the ceasefire their victory against Israel and the US.
Hopefully, Trump 2:0 would have realised that diplomacy and real estate deals are entirely different. Whereas the latter can be purely transactional, the former involves history, human emotions and politics.
