Manish Tewari | ‘Act East’ policy demands relook, but stabilise N-E
The Act East Policy (AEP) has been one of New Delhi’s most enduring and consistent foreign policy strategies since the end of the Cold War. Initially launched as the Look East Policy, it primarily focused on strengthening economic and strategic relations with Southeast Asian nations. Over time, this approach has evolved into a broader strategy, including deeper engagements with East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, and addressing the economic and strategic needs of India’s Northeastern region by promoting cross-border economic ties. However, recent political instability in neighboring Bangladesh and Myanmar has raised serious concerns about the policy’s effectiveness, indicating that a significant reassessment may now be necessary.
A Sudden Shift in the Neighborhood: The political landscape in Bangladesh underwent a dramatic change with the ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024. Her administration, long viewed as a stable and friendly neighbour to India, fell amidst widespread protests. For India, which had fostered a strong relationship with Hasina’s government, this development marks a significant setback. This shift has strained diplomatic relations between the two countries and cast doubt on several critical infrastructure and connectivity projects vital to India’s strategic interests.
The immediate fallout from this political turmoil includes the suspension of train services and the stoppage of goods and people moving across the India-Bangladesh border. A more pressing concern for India is the possibility that the new leadership in Bangladesh might shift its alignment towards China or even, ironically, Pakistan whose depredations in the first place led to the creation of Bangladesh. These are nations with which India shares complex and often adversarial ties. The interim government in Bangladesh, now headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, may be less willing to sustain the close cooperation that previously existed between Bangladesh and India. Such a shift could result in a geopolitical realignment that negatively impacts India’s security and economic interests.
Navigating relations with the interim government could be difficult for India. The Yunus administration has hinted at a potential reevaluation of the bilateral relationship, suggesting that Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) previously signed with India might be reviewed or even cancelled if they are deemed unfavorable to Bangladesh. This, along with increased scrutiny of Indian-funded projects and renewed discussions on contentious issues like the Teesta water-sharing treaty, highlights the complexities India faces in preserving its strategic interests in the region.
The Dilemma of Engagement in Myanmar: The strategic and economic significance of Myanmar to India is considerable, especially for advancing India’s influence in Southeast Asia through the Act East Policy (AEP) and strengthening ties with Asean countries. However, political turmoil in Myanmar, stemming from the military's takeover in February 2021, poses a serious challenge. On February 8, 2024, the Indian government decided to terminate the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar after fencing the border to bolster internal security and maintain the demographic balance in the Northeastern states.
The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, linking Manipur in India’s northeast with Mae Sot in Thailand via Mandalay and Bagan in Myanmar, is a crucial project. While approximately 70 per cent of the highway has been completed, progress on the remaining 30 per cent has stalled due to the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. Similarly, the ambitious trans-Asian railway link, intended to connect New Delhi with Hanoi, has made little tangible progress. Furthermore, the future of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, designed to link the eastern Indian port of Kolkata with Sittwe in Myanmar’s Rakhine state by sea, is also in jeopardy. The recent capture of Paletwa by the Arakan Army has further complicated the situation, casting doubt on the completion of this strategically vital project.
The Northeast Region on Edge: The northeastern region of India is of immense strategic importance due to its unique geographic location, bordering Bhutan, China, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This pivotal position makes the region a gateway to Southeast Asia, placing it at the heart of India’s AEP.
However, ongoing ethnic tensions in Manipur, often referred to as India’s “gateway” to Southeast Asia, threaten to derail India’s ambitious plans under the AEP. These conflicts have far-reaching implications for the Northeastern region, which has historically been plagued by ethnic strife and insurgencies. The instability spilling over from neighboring countries, coupled with the influx of refugees from Myanmar and the potential for similar movements from Bangladesh, has intensified tensions in states such as Mizoram and Manipur.
The Indian government’s decision to suspend the Free Movement Regime (FMR), which facilitated the movement of people across the India-Myanmar border, not only underscores security concerns but also disrupts the social and economic lives of border communities. For India’s vision of a “shared destiny” under the AEP to succeed, stability in the northeastern states is essential. The future of the AEP extends beyond improving infrastructure; it hinges on fostering peace and trust both within the region and with neighboring countries.
Navigating a New Reality: Given these challenges, it is evident that India’s Act East Policy needs a comprehensive reassessment. The policy’s core components of economic engagement, connectivity projects and strategic alliances are increasingly strained by shifting political and security dynamics in the region. The recent political upheavals in Bangladesh and Myanmar, combined with persistent tensions in India’s Northeast, highlight the need for a more adaptable and nuanced approach. India must reevaluate its traditional alliances and explore new strategies that include broader political engagement, humanitarian considerations, and a recalibrated approach to regional cooperation. By doing so, India can better protect its interests and ensure that the Act East Policy remains effective in an increasingly volatile environment.
India’s Act East Policy has the potential to significantly alter the geopolitical and geo-economic landscape of the region, especially in light of rising Chinese influence. Rooted in the principle of a “shared destiny,” the AEP emphasises equal roles for all nations. The northeastern region of India is crucial to this policy, and its future success is heavily dependent on achieving peace, stability and development in these states. Addressing these needs is essential for ensuring that the Act East Policy continues to advance India’s strategic interests.
